Over the last decade, $NVDA and $BTC both returned roughly 130x. $AMD did 77x. $TSLA 26x.
Meanwhile, boring old $AAPL did 12x, $MSFT nearly 10x, $GOOGL 8x.
The $SPY — the thing most people can actually buy and hold without panicking — did 3x.
Bonds barely kept up with inflation.
A few observations:
1. The winners were obvious in hindsight, impossible to hold in real time. $NVDA dropped 65% in 2022. $BTC has had four 70%+ drawdowns. $TSLA was down 73% in 2022. Most people would've sold.
2. Concentration paid off if you got it right. Diversification paid off if you wanted to sleep at night and not blow up.
3. Inflation ate 39%. Bonds returned 14%. If you played it safe and stayed in bonds, you went backwards in real terms.
4. The S&P did 3x with zero skill required. Just buy, hold, ignore the noise. That's the benchmark. Anything less and you're paying for excitement, not returns.
The lesson isn't "buy $NVDA." The lesson is: if you can't stomach 50-70% drops, if you can't ignore the headlines, if you're going to panic-sell at the bottom — then you have no business chasing the big winners. Stick with the index, stay invested, and let time do the work.
Most people would've been better off buying $SPY in 2015 and deleting the app.
Meanwhile, boring old $AAPL did 12x, $MSFT nearly 10x, $GOOGL 8x.
The $SPY — the thing most people can actually buy and hold without panicking — did 3x.
Bonds barely kept up with inflation.
A few observations:
1. The winners were obvious in hindsight, impossible to hold in real time. $NVDA dropped 65% in 2022. $BTC has had four 70%+ drawdowns. $TSLA was down 73% in 2022. Most people would've sold.
2. Concentration paid off if you got it right. Diversification paid off if you wanted to sleep at night and not blow up.
3. Inflation ate 39%. Bonds returned 14%. If you played it safe and stayed in bonds, you went backwards in real terms.
4. The S&P did 3x with zero skill required. Just buy, hold, ignore the noise. That's the benchmark. Anything less and you're paying for excitement, not returns.
The lesson isn't "buy $NVDA." The lesson is: if you can't stomach 50-70% drops, if you can't ignore the headlines, if you're going to panic-sell at the bottom — then you have no business chasing the big winners. Stick with the index, stay invested, and let time do the work.
Most people would've been better off buying $SPY in 2015 and deleting the app.