If you're still pricing Bitcoin as if governments are just watching from the sidelines, stop now.
The expensive habit is treating every seizure headline like a guaranteed dump or a guaranteed moon, then buying the top of the rumor and selling the bottom of the auction.
Governments are estimated to hold about 646,000 $BTC, close to 3% of the 21 million supply. The U.S. leads with roughly 328,000 to 330,000 coins, China follows with about 190,000, and the UK holds around 61,000. Trackers put that stack above $50 billion, and the figure moves every time the price does.
Compare that with the last cycle, when state bags were a rounding error and the loud bid came from corporate treasuries like $MSTR buying in the open. This pile is different. A large share arrived through seizures, not market orders, so it never had to lift the price on the way in. That is closer to old reserve logic than to an $ETH flow story: supply got removed first, and the market only finds out later whether it comes back.
Do you see seized coins as the real overhang, or do these wallets just sit there?
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro
The expensive habit is treating every seizure headline like a guaranteed dump or a guaranteed moon, then buying the top of the rumor and selling the bottom of the auction.
Governments are estimated to hold about 646,000 $BTC, close to 3% of the 21 million supply. The U.S. leads with roughly 328,000 to 330,000 coins, China follows with about 190,000, and the UK holds around 61,000. Trackers put that stack above $50 billion, and the figure moves every time the price does.
Compare that with the last cycle, when state bags were a rounding error and the loud bid came from corporate treasuries like $MSTR buying in the open. This pile is different. A large share arrived through seizures, not market orders, so it never had to lift the price on the way in. That is closer to old reserve logic than to an $ETH flow story: supply got removed first, and the market only finds out later whether it comes back.
Do you see seized coins as the real overhang, or do these wallets just sit there?
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro