Bitcoin's MVRV ratio crossed back above its 365-day average, the same cross it saw at the start of the 2019 and 2023 bull markets. As of October 11, MVRV sits near 1.54 against an annual average of 1.44. BTC was around $85.9K when Glassnode posted and has since dipped back near $82K, so the signal held through a pullback.
MVRV compares market value with the aggregate cost basis of coins, so 1.54 means the network's coins are collectively valued roughly 54% above what holders paid. Rising above its own yearly trend says valuations are recovering after a long compression, which is how both prior cycles looked at the start.
Here's what I'd keep in view. Glassnode itself says the resemblance is structural, not a promise of the same price path, and the two precedents diverged: 2019 rallied sharply then gave back gains, while 2023 carried into 2024. Two cases isn't a pattern.
By my math, MVRV is only about 7% above its average, a thin margin, and it's still below its long-run average near 1.8. A crossover also confirms something that already happened rather than predicting what's next. One trader makes the fair point that after both earlier crosses, the market consolidated before taking off.
So "bear market over" is a hypothesis this indicator supports, not proves. What I'd watch is whether MVRV holds above its yearly average through the next dip, with real demand behind it.
$BTC #Macro Insights# #BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season#
MVRV compares market value with the aggregate cost basis of coins, so 1.54 means the network's coins are collectively valued roughly 54% above what holders paid. Rising above its own yearly trend says valuations are recovering after a long compression, which is how both prior cycles looked at the start.
Here's what I'd keep in view. Glassnode itself says the resemblance is structural, not a promise of the same price path, and the two precedents diverged: 2019 rallied sharply then gave back gains, while 2023 carried into 2024. Two cases isn't a pattern.
By my math, MVRV is only about 7% above its average, a thin margin, and it's still below its long-run average near 1.8. A crossover also confirms something that already happened rather than predicting what's next. One trader makes the fair point that after both earlier crosses, the market consolidated before taking off.
So "bear market over" is a hypothesis this indicator supports, not proves. What I'd watch is whether MVRV holds above its yearly average through the next dip, with real demand behind it.
$BTC #Macro Insights# #BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season#