Rate Hike Week: Crypto’s Stress Test
The Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% on Sept 16, its first hike since 2023, and the minutes from that meeting say most officials expect another hike this year. The next decision lands Oct 28, just days before the US midterms. In other words, October has a plot.
Before that comes September CPI on Wednesday. August printed 3.4% headline and 2.4% core, and the gap between those two numbers tells you energy is doing the heavy lifting. Add a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and you’ve got a market where every data release feels like a season finale.
Here’s the funny part. Bitcoin didn’t collapse under all this. It gained about 25% in August and about 7% in September, and spot ETFs took in $2.4B in one week. But it still sits roughly a third below its October 2025 high of $126,198, so nobody should be doing victory laps 🏃
What I’m watching:
CPI (Oct 14): hotter or cooler than the last print
Fed (Oct 28): hike or hold, and the tone of the press conference
ETF flows: daily inflows faded from about $1B on Monday to $134M by Friday in that record week
The $84–85K zone, where many long-term holders bought and where price has struggled
Crypto isn’t a separate universe anymore. It reacts to the same rates, yields, and headlines as everything else. Plan for both outcomes and don’t marry a narrative.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#Fed #CPI #Bitcoin #Macro #dyor
The Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% on Sept 16, its first hike since 2023, and the minutes from that meeting say most officials expect another hike this year. The next decision lands Oct 28, just days before the US midterms. In other words, October has a plot.
Before that comes September CPI on Wednesday. August printed 3.4% headline and 2.4% core, and the gap between those two numbers tells you energy is doing the heavy lifting. Add a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and you’ve got a market where every data release feels like a season finale.
Here’s the funny part. Bitcoin didn’t collapse under all this. It gained about 25% in August and about 7% in September, and spot ETFs took in $2.4B in one week. But it still sits roughly a third below its October 2025 high of $126,198, so nobody should be doing victory laps 🏃
What I’m watching:
CPI (Oct 14): hotter or cooler than the last print
Fed (Oct 28): hike or hold, and the tone of the press conference
ETF flows: daily inflows faded from about $1B on Monday to $134M by Friday in that record week
The $84–85K zone, where many long-term holders bought and where price has struggled
Crypto isn’t a separate universe anymore. It reacts to the same rates, yields, and headlines as everything else. Plan for both outcomes and don’t marry a narrative.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#Fed #CPI #Bitcoin #Macro #dyor