Today is the one-year anniversary of the Oct 10 "Great Liquidation," and Bitcoin's derivatives market just quietly repeated the setup that preceded it.
Open interest climbed about 4% over the past week to roughly 650,000 BTC — nearly identical to the 4.1% run-up in open interest in the five days before last year's cascade. Same leverage buildup, same shape on the chart.
The difference is funding. Perpetual funding is sitting around 7% annualized right now, versus roughly 27% annualized heading into last October's blowup. Open interest as a share of BTC market cap is also lower — about 3.2% now versus 3.7% then. The leverage is building back, but it isn't nearly as crowded or as expensive to hold yet.
That's the mechanism that actually matters for a cascade: it's not open interest alone, it's open interest plus crowded, expensive longs. Right now we have the first without the second.
Is rising OI with low funding a sign of healthier, more balanced positioning this cycle, or just the early innings of the same setup building again? #Bitcoin #TradingSignals #Crypto #TokenBot $BTC $TBOT
tokenbot.com
Open interest climbed about 4% over the past week to roughly 650,000 BTC — nearly identical to the 4.1% run-up in open interest in the five days before last year's cascade. Same leverage buildup, same shape on the chart.
The difference is funding. Perpetual funding is sitting around 7% annualized right now, versus roughly 27% annualized heading into last October's blowup. Open interest as a share of BTC market cap is also lower — about 3.2% now versus 3.7% then. The leverage is building back, but it isn't nearly as crowded or as expensive to hold yet.
That's the mechanism that actually matters for a cascade: it's not open interest alone, it's open interest plus crowded, expensive longs. Right now we have the first without the second.
Is rising OI with low funding a sign of healthier, more balanced positioning this cycle, or just the early innings of the same setup building again? #Bitcoin #TradingSignals #Crypto #TokenBot $BTC $TBOT
tokenbot.com