⚡ Fed Protocol: The rate has increased, but the markets do not believe in the continuation!
The Fed under the leadership of Kevin Worsh unanimously raised the rate by 25 b.p. (to 3.75-4.00%) - for the first time in three years. However, the minutes of the meeting revealed a deep split: the "hawks" demand to continue crushing inflation, and the moderate wing calls for caution due to the weakening of the economy.
📊 Briefly about the main thing:
Hawk plan: 16 out of 18 representatives of the Fed still predict at least another rate increase in 2026.
Skepticism of traders: Due to weak macro data, the market estimated the probability of October at only 19% and expects a pause.
Storm in the markets: The yield of 10-year U.S. government paper soared to 5.33%, 30-year - to 5.71%. The dollar is strengthening, and gold has collapsed to a 2-month low.
💡 What's up with cryptocurrency?
The high yield of risk-free government bonds (>5.3%) creates local pressure on all risk assets. However, the obvious split within the Fed hints: the tightening cycle is at the limit. The release of weak data on inflation and the labor market will quickly turn the wait for a pause into a bullish trigger for Bitcoin.
$XAU $TLT.ETF
The Fed under the leadership of Kevin Worsh unanimously raised the rate by 25 b.p. (to 3.75-4.00%) - for the first time in three years. However, the minutes of the meeting revealed a deep split: the "hawks" demand to continue crushing inflation, and the moderate wing calls for caution due to the weakening of the economy.
📊 Briefly about the main thing:
Hawk plan: 16 out of 18 representatives of the Fed still predict at least another rate increase in 2026.
Skepticism of traders: Due to weak macro data, the market estimated the probability of October at only 19% and expects a pause.
Storm in the markets: The yield of 10-year U.S. government paper soared to 5.33%, 30-year - to 5.71%. The dollar is strengthening, and gold has collapsed to a 2-month low.
💡 What's up with cryptocurrency?
The high yield of risk-free government bonds (>5.3%) creates local pressure on all risk assets. However, the obvious split within the Fed hints: the tightening cycle is at the limit. The release of weak data on inflation and the labor market will quickly turn the wait for a pause into a bullish trigger for Bitcoin.
$XAU $TLT.ETF