#FOMC In 1 Hour, I would rather take a long $XAU than $BTC , why?
Gold reacts more directly to real yields than BTC.
Why up:
1. Weak jobs already gave gold bullish setup and gold gained as hike prospects fade
2. Central bank buying + debt/political concerns limiting downside + seasonal physical demand from India/China in October
3. If payrolls miss / dovish, path is $4,218 -> $4,300
Why down:
1. If hawkish, 10Y at 5.15% caps rebound and $4,694 upside only if $4,225 holds
2. Hawkish Fed + bond selloff keeps bulls defensive around $4,250, drop to $4,100 floor
My numbers:
• 65% dovish/balanced -> XAU holds $4,157-4,165 and pushes $4,200-$4,300
• 35% hawkish -> XAU flush to $4,138-$4,100 #Write2Earn
Gold reacts more directly to real yields than BTC.
Why up:
1. Weak jobs already gave gold bullish setup and gold gained as hike prospects fade
2. Central bank buying + debt/political concerns limiting downside + seasonal physical demand from India/China in October
3. If payrolls miss / dovish, path is $4,218 -> $4,300
Why down:
1. If hawkish, 10Y at 5.15% caps rebound and $4,694 upside only if $4,225 holds
2. Hawkish Fed + bond selloff keeps bulls defensive around $4,250, drop to $4,100 floor
My numbers:
• 65% dovish/balanced -> XAU holds $4,157-4,165 and pushes $4,200-$4,300
• 35% hawkish -> XAU flush to $4,138-$4,100 #Write2Earn