Tonight at 2:00 pm ET, the Fed releases the minutes from its September 15-16 meeting. That's the meeting where Kevin Warsh's Fed hiked 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, with a 12-0 vote.
Crypto is mostly trading the opposite story. Soft September payrolls and August PCE cut the market odds of another hike this month to below 1 in 4. Fear & Greed sat at 73 (Greed) on Tuesday, and $BTC has been holding around $85.5K-$86K.
But in September, 12 of 18 officials projected one more hike this year. The minutes will show how firmly they meant it.
What I'm watching:
- How many officials wanted faster tightening, not just "one more".
- Oil. With energy prices still elevated from the Iran war, any line linking oil to sticky inflation is a hawkish tell.
- Whether "data-dependent" still leaves room for a hike despite softer jobs data.
Positioning isn't clean either. $172M in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours ahead of the release, $101M of it longs, and spot BTC ETFs flipped to $89.8M of outflows on Oct 5.
The fair counterpoint: minutes are backward-looking. If the split leans dovish, the "one more hike" guidance looks stale and risk assets could get a relief bid.
Is the market front-running a pause the Fed itself hasn't signaled?
Personal commentary, not financial advice. DYOR.
#FOMCMinutes #Bitcoin
Crypto is mostly trading the opposite story. Soft September payrolls and August PCE cut the market odds of another hike this month to below 1 in 4. Fear & Greed sat at 73 (Greed) on Tuesday, and $BTC has been holding around $85.5K-$86K.
But in September, 12 of 18 officials projected one more hike this year. The minutes will show how firmly they meant it.
What I'm watching:
- How many officials wanted faster tightening, not just "one more".
- Oil. With energy prices still elevated from the Iran war, any line linking oil to sticky inflation is a hawkish tell.
- Whether "data-dependent" still leaves room for a hike despite softer jobs data.
Positioning isn't clean either. $172M in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours ahead of the release, $101M of it longs, and spot BTC ETFs flipped to $89.8M of outflows on Oct 5.
The fair counterpoint: minutes are backward-looking. If the split leans dovish, the "one more hike" guidance looks stale and risk assets could get a relief bid.
Is the market front-running a pause the Fed itself hasn't signaled?
Personal commentary, not financial advice. DYOR.
#FOMCMinutes #Bitcoin
