Close but your timeline is off. It's not "set to hike in September" it _did_ hike Sep 16, and yields are _still_ over 5% now in October, which is why Delphi warning still relevant today. $RLC $RAD $RLC
*Delphi Digital note Oct 3-5:*
BTC: +43% Q3 = best Q3 since 2017 — 3rd straight weekly gain last week*
- *Headwind: Fed hiked 25bps Sep 16 to 3.75-4.00% — first hike since July 2023 — dot plot shows most expect one more before end 2026 — 10Y touched 5.04% pre-Fed, 5.11% Sep 23, 5.342% Oct 1 intraday, now ∼5.26-5.28% — 30Y 5.69% Sep — UK 30Y 6% first since 1998 — global bond carnage*
- *Thesis: When T-bill/Treasury pays >5% risk-free, BTC must "work harder to justify trade" — opportunity cost spikes — borrowing costs + stronger dollar + leverage squeeze — BTC ETF outflows $450M day before hike, $753M week Sep 8-15 (erased $770M inflows Sep 1-4) — ETH ETF -$141M same*
- *Offset: Debasement trade still intact — deficit/interest cost focus — weaker jobs (29k payroll Sep, 4.2% u-rate) + PCE cooler 3.4% headline / 3.0% core = October hike odds falling (FedWatch 70%→∼30% pause) — could ease pressure temporarily — S&P biotech +26% YTD already unwinding, IPO window shutting (Oura $2.2B pulled Sep 29)*
*BREAKING 🚨 Delphi: BTC +43% best Q3 since 2017 but 5%+ yields cap upside 📊 Fed hiked Sep 16 to 3.75-4% first since 2023 — 10Y 5.34% Oct 1 high since 2007 — 30Y 5.69% — risk-free 5%+ = risk assets must justify trade — BTC ETF -$753M pre-hike week — debasement trade support vs leverage squeeze — Oct hike odds falling on weak jobs ⚡*#ETHUp70%InQ3ButLiquidityFalls #EthStakingExitQueueHits2026High #FedOctoberHoldOdds82.3% #Nikkei225Jumps2.5%ToThreeMonthHigh
*Delphi Digital note Oct 3-5:*
BTC: +43% Q3 = best Q3 since 2017 — 3rd straight weekly gain last week*
- *Headwind: Fed hiked 25bps Sep 16 to 3.75-4.00% — first hike since July 2023 — dot plot shows most expect one more before end 2026 — 10Y touched 5.04% pre-Fed, 5.11% Sep 23, 5.342% Oct 1 intraday, now ∼5.26-5.28% — 30Y 5.69% Sep — UK 30Y 6% first since 1998 — global bond carnage*
- *Thesis: When T-bill/Treasury pays >5% risk-free, BTC must "work harder to justify trade" — opportunity cost spikes — borrowing costs + stronger dollar + leverage squeeze — BTC ETF outflows $450M day before hike, $753M week Sep 8-15 (erased $770M inflows Sep 1-4) — ETH ETF -$141M same*
- *Offset: Debasement trade still intact — deficit/interest cost focus — weaker jobs (29k payroll Sep, 4.2% u-rate) + PCE cooler 3.4% headline / 3.0% core = October hike odds falling (FedWatch 70%→∼30% pause) — could ease pressure temporarily — S&P biotech +26% YTD already unwinding, IPO window shutting (Oura $2.2B pulled Sep 29)*
*BREAKING 🚨 Delphi: BTC +43% best Q3 since 2017 but 5%+ yields cap upside 📊 Fed hiked Sep 16 to 3.75-4% first since 2023 — 10Y 5.34% Oct 1 high since 2007 — 30Y 5.69% — risk-free 5%+ = risk assets must justify trade — BTC ETF -$753M pre-hike week — debasement trade support vs leverage squeeze — Oct hike odds falling on weak jobs ⚡*#ETHUp70%InQ3ButLiquidityFalls #EthStakingExitQueueHits2026High #FedOctoberHoldOdds82.3% #Nikkei225Jumps2.5%ToThreeMonthHigh
