BIG WEEK INCOMING — and it's all about risk events, not data 📊
Monday kicks off with ISM Services PMI (10 AM ET). Forecast around 55. Last week's composite hit 58.4. If services stay hot, yields push higher and risk-on gets tested.
Wednesday drops the September FOMC minutes at 2 PM ET. These won't include Friday's weak jobs data — they're from the meeting where the Fed hiked unanimously and projected just one more hike in 2026. Watch for any cracks in consensus.
Wednesday + Thursday: 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions. Last month saw a buyers' strike. Weak demand = yields spike = crypto pullback risk. These auctions matter more than the data.
Thursday: jobless claims (forecast ~200k). Friday: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (last read 48.1, Conference Board already hit 2014 lows).
Fed speakers all week: Williams, Bowman, Logan, Musalem, Collins. Expect hawkish noise.
Next week: CPI on October 14 — first big inflation read before the October 27-28 FOMC.
THE SETUP:
Goldman expects one more hike in December, maybe none. 10-year sits near 5.24%. 30-year hit 5.50% last week. Nasdaq futures positioning is the most bullish since 2017.
$BTC trades above $85,000. Iran headlines can break any of this. Trump said Thursday Iran will "sign a deal or not exist."
Four events decide the week: the minutes, two auctions, and the oil price.
TRADE IDEA:
If Treasury auctions flop and yields spike, expect $BTC to test $83k support. If auctions hold and yields ease, we run toward $87k. Watch the 10-year yield at 5.30% as the line in the sand. Above that = risk-off. Below = continuation.
Risk management: tight stops if you're long into the auctions. This week can flip fast.
Monday kicks off with ISM Services PMI (10 AM ET). Forecast around 55. Last week's composite hit 58.4. If services stay hot, yields push higher and risk-on gets tested.
Wednesday drops the September FOMC minutes at 2 PM ET. These won't include Friday's weak jobs data — they're from the meeting where the Fed hiked unanimously and projected just one more hike in 2026. Watch for any cracks in consensus.
Wednesday + Thursday: 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions. Last month saw a buyers' strike. Weak demand = yields spike = crypto pullback risk. These auctions matter more than the data.
Thursday: jobless claims (forecast ~200k). Friday: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (last read 48.1, Conference Board already hit 2014 lows).
Fed speakers all week: Williams, Bowman, Logan, Musalem, Collins. Expect hawkish noise.
Next week: CPI on October 14 — first big inflation read before the October 27-28 FOMC.
THE SETUP:
Goldman expects one more hike in December, maybe none. 10-year sits near 5.24%. 30-year hit 5.50% last week. Nasdaq futures positioning is the most bullish since 2017.
$BTC trades above $85,000. Iran headlines can break any of this. Trump said Thursday Iran will "sign a deal or not exist."
Four events decide the week: the minutes, two auctions, and the oil price.
TRADE IDEA:
If Treasury auctions flop and yields spike, expect $BTC to test $83k support. If auctions hold and yields ease, we run toward $87k. Watch the 10-year yield at 5.30% as the line in the sand. Above that = risk-off. Below = continuation.
Risk management: tight stops if you're long into the auctions. This week can flip fast.