The macro picture just changed. 👀
After a weak U.S. jobs report, markets now price just 17% odds of an October Fed rate hike, while the probability of a hold has risen to 83%.
The reason?
🇺🇸 September payrolls added only 29K jobs
📈 Unemployment rose to 4.2%
📉 July–August payrolls were revised down by 60K
💵 Markets now expect less Fed tightening through 2026.
For crypto, lower tightening expectations can improve the liquidity backdrop and risk appetite.
But there’s a key warning:
BTC already showed the reaction — it pushed toward $87K, failed to hold, and pulled back toward $84.6K.
So I’m watching liquidity + inflation + BTC price reaction, not just the 17% headline.
If upcoming inflation data stays soft, the macro setup could become more supportive for $BTC $ETH $SOL .
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17% #FederalReserve #Liquidity #BTC #Crypto
