Today’s $2.95B BTC/ETH options expiry did not coincide with a move toward max pain.
About 30,500 $BTC options and 116,000 $ETH options expired. Put/call ratios were above 1 in both markets, while max-pain levels sat near $82K for BTC and $2,660 for ETH. Yet BTC held around $86K and ETH near $2.74K after settlement.
The interesting part isn’t the notional size. It’s what failed to happen. Price did not converge on those lower levels, so the current bid is stronger than the expiry-pinning narrative suggested.
Now the test returns to price. BTC still needs acceptance above $87K. A clean hold there, after the expiry overhang is gone, would strengthen the breakout case. A quick loss of $85K would say the squeeze did more work than spot demand.
About 30,500 $BTC options and 116,000 $ETH options expired. Put/call ratios were above 1 in both markets, while max-pain levels sat near $82K for BTC and $2,660 for ETH. Yet BTC held around $86K and ETH near $2.74K after settlement.
The interesting part isn’t the notional size. It’s what failed to happen. Price did not converge on those lower levels, so the current bid is stronger than the expiry-pinning narrative suggested.
Now the test returns to price. BTC still needs acceptance above $87K. A clean hold there, after the expiry overhang is gone, would strengthen the breakout case. A quick loss of $85K would say the squeeze did more work than spot demand.
