US Growth Is Back, But the Bond Market Is Under Pressure 😰
US-Iran tensions remain unresolved, with the Strait of Hormuz still heavily disrupted and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1982. At the same time, the US economy is showing stronger momentum, with composite PMI jumping to 58.4 — the strongest since July 2021.
The problem is that stronger growth and still-sticky costs are pushing investors to demand more yield. The 10Y Treasury has moved above 5%, up 53bps, showing how quickly the market is repricing duration risk.
Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi trade truce has been extended only until January 10, while AI spending is becoming another concern. Oracle’s negative free cash flow despite strong revenue growth and huge planned capex are starting to raise questions about whether AI investment is becoming too aggressive. Wider credit spreads suggest investors are paying more attention to that risk.
Crypto is still doing its own thing, with Strategy adding another $142.7M of BTC and the SEC approving a tokenized-stock exemption.
The biggest story here isn’t really AI or geopolitics individually — it’s the bond market. If 10Y yields stay above 5%, higher term premium could continue tightening financial conditions and put pressure on risk assets like stocks and crypto. For $BTC , the bullish liquidity narrative becomes harder to maintain if yields keep climbing.
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#Binance
#crypto2026
US-Iran tensions remain unresolved, with the Strait of Hormuz still heavily disrupted and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1982. At the same time, the US economy is showing stronger momentum, with composite PMI jumping to 58.4 — the strongest since July 2021.
The problem is that stronger growth and still-sticky costs are pushing investors to demand more yield. The 10Y Treasury has moved above 5%, up 53bps, showing how quickly the market is repricing duration risk.
Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi trade truce has been extended only until January 10, while AI spending is becoming another concern. Oracle’s negative free cash flow despite strong revenue growth and huge planned capex are starting to raise questions about whether AI investment is becoming too aggressive. Wider credit spreads suggest investors are paying more attention to that risk.
Crypto is still doing its own thing, with Strategy adding another $142.7M of BTC and the SEC approving a tokenized-stock exemption.
The biggest story here isn’t really AI or geopolitics individually — it’s the bond market. If 10Y yields stay above 5%, higher term premium could continue tightening financial conditions and put pressure on risk assets like stocks and crypto. For $BTC , the bullish liquidity narrative becomes harder to maintain if yields keep climbing.
If you enjoy my content, feel free to follow me ❤️
#Binance
#crypto2026
