🚨 $TAO LOST ITS H1 FLOOR. SELLERS HAVE THE EDGE—WAIT FOR THE FAILED RETEST.
TAOUSDT USD-M Futures closed its latest H1 candle at $308.83 (29 Sep, 06:59 UTC).
Three reasons for a BEARISH BIAS:
1️⃣ The earlier bullish structure failed: TAO closed below $318.30, then slid to $294.28. The prior $320.94 breakout did not hold.
2️⃣ Highs stepped down from $341.30 to $337.14, $329.82 and $310.72. The current rebound remains below the broken $318.30 floor.
3️⃣ The $307.02→$300.87 sell candle traded 71.1K TAO, about 1.93× its previous 20-hour average. The latest rebound candle reached $308.83 on only 0.75× its previous 20-hour average.
Wyckoff: the loss of the upper range may be a developing SOW; the reaction near $294.28 is not enough to confirm accumulation or a new bullish phase. SMC: a closed H1 bearish BOS below $318.30 favors a failed retest of $315–$318. Demand remains at $297.55–$294.28.
🔴 CONDITIONAL SHORT
Trigger: H1 close below $318.30 (met).
Entry: $315–$318 only if a rebound fails to reclaim the lost structure and sellers respond.
SL: $321.50
TP1: $297.55 (3.8R)
TP2: $294.28 (4.4R)
R:R uses the $316.50 entry midpoint. Invalidation: H1 close above $321.50.
STATUS: BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET. Do not short into $294 demand or chase a red candle. If the failed retest never arrives, skip it.
Can sellers defend $315–$318 on the next bounce?
$TAO #Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
TAOUSDT USD-M Futures closed its latest H1 candle at $308.83 (29 Sep, 06:59 UTC).
Three reasons for a BEARISH BIAS:
1️⃣ The earlier bullish structure failed: TAO closed below $318.30, then slid to $294.28. The prior $320.94 breakout did not hold.
2️⃣ Highs stepped down from $341.30 to $337.14, $329.82 and $310.72. The current rebound remains below the broken $318.30 floor.
3️⃣ The $307.02→$300.87 sell candle traded 71.1K TAO, about 1.93× its previous 20-hour average. The latest rebound candle reached $308.83 on only 0.75× its previous 20-hour average.
Wyckoff: the loss of the upper range may be a developing SOW; the reaction near $294.28 is not enough to confirm accumulation or a new bullish phase. SMC: a closed H1 bearish BOS below $318.30 favors a failed retest of $315–$318. Demand remains at $297.55–$294.28.
🔴 CONDITIONAL SHORT
Trigger: H1 close below $318.30 (met).
Entry: $315–$318 only if a rebound fails to reclaim the lost structure and sellers respond.
SL: $321.50
TP1: $297.55 (3.8R)
TP2: $294.28 (4.4R)
R:R uses the $316.50 entry midpoint. Invalidation: H1 close above $321.50.
STATUS: BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET. Do not short into $294 demand or chase a red candle. If the failed retest never arrives, skip it.
Can sellers defend $315–$318 on the next bounce?
$TAO #Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
