Oracle’s debt market is flashing a serious warning.

Its 5-year credit default swap spread jumped to a record 227 basis points, rising more than 16% in one week.

At the same time, roughly $18 billion of loans tied to Project Jupiter, Oracle’s New Mexico AI data center project, are trading around 89–91 cents on the dollar.

Oracle was already downgraded to BBB-, leaving just one rating notch between the company and junk status.

The bigger question now is whether Oracle’s massive AI infrastructure spending can generate enough cash flow to support its rapidly growing debt load.

This is becoming one of the biggest credit stories in the AI boom.

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