I mean.....
Standing here, one thought keeps crossing my mind regarding BTC..... Are we witnessing just a standard pullback, or is the market clearing out liquidity below before gearing up for a major move?
My outlook regarding the downside hasn't changed yet.
The reason is that there are two significant long liquidation clusters below the current price. Interestingly, both locations align almost perfectly with the "continuation long zones" I had identified earlier.
It’s a bit unusual.
Usually, when people spot liquidity, they assume, "If the market drops there, it will turn even more bearish." But I see it differently: if BTC actually reaches those levels, it might not be a cause for panic for me, but rather an opportunity to wait and watch.
The first zone is around $80K–$81K.
This area is interesting to me because it involves more than just liquidity. The lows of the recent breakout rally are also near this region. This means that if BTC drops to this level, a large volume of long positions could get liquidated, while the price simultaneously retests the breakout highs of the previous range.
Two factors converging in one spot.
This is where I need to pause.
Just because a level is significant for liquidity doesn't guarantee the price will reverse there. Markets often touch a level and continue dropping further. So, I’m not labeling $80K–$81K as the "bottom" just yet.
Instead, I want to observe how the price behaves there.
How is it dropping?
How fast is the decline?
Do buyers step back in after the liquidity is swept?
These nuances will become crucial at that point.
And if the price doesn't just pause at $80K–$81K but breaks through and drops lower, the second level comes into play.
$74K–$75K.
This aligns almost perfectly with my Higher Time Frame (HTF) long area.
There’s a psychological aspect here, too. If the price drops below $80K, many traders might start thinking the breakout has completely failed. That fear could intensify as it approaches $75K. Yet, this is the fascinating nature of the market: the very areas where everyone feels uncomfortable are often where the most liquidity accumulates. Of course, this doesn't mean I’ll go long the moment the price touches $75K. That’s not what I’m saying. I have no intention of taking a position based solely on a number without confirmation. However, if BTC does experience a deeper pullback and reaches the $74K–$75K zone, I personally won't ignore it.
Instead, I’d consider increasing my spot exposure.
And swing long positions, too.
Because for me, the setup wouldn't just be about the price having dropped significantly. High Time Frame (HTF) levels, previous market structure, and liquidation liquidity would all converge in that same zone.
So, right now, I find myself in a bit of a unique position.
The short-term chart might indicate further downside.
But I don't view that downside merely as a move to be feared. Instead, I’m looking at where the market might become interesting again if it drops to sweep liquidity.
$80K–$81K is the first level.
$74K–$75K is the second.
It’s not yet clear which of these will ultimately hold. And honestly, I see no need to pre-determine the answer.
Let the market speak first.
I’m simply observing where liquidity has accumulated, where the old structure lies, and at what point the conditions would justify taking the risk.
#BitcoinFallsToAround$84,600ThisWeek #BitcoinRejectedAt$87,300Twice