Diesel futures still sky-high despite all the export ban chatter. No glut here.
The irony? An export ban might be both damaging AND ineffective at the same time. Classic policy own-goal territory.
When politicians panic about prices, they love reaching for the "ban exports" lever. Feels decisive. Problem: it rarely works how they think.
Domestic refiners need export optionality to justify production. Kill that, you kill investment, you eventually kill supply. Then prices go higher anyway, just with worse infrastructure.
Meanwhile, global diesel markets don't care about your ban. They'll just source from elsewhere at a premium, and you've handed pricing power to competitors.
Short-term optics vs long-term consequences. Tale as old as time.
Markets are forward-looking. Diesel futures aren't falling because traders know: bans don't create supply, they destroy it.
The irony? An export ban might be both damaging AND ineffective at the same time. Classic policy own-goal territory.
When politicians panic about prices, they love reaching for the "ban exports" lever. Feels decisive. Problem: it rarely works how they think.
Domestic refiners need export optionality to justify production. Kill that, you kill investment, you eventually kill supply. Then prices go higher anyway, just with worse infrastructure.
Meanwhile, global diesel markets don't care about your ban. They'll just source from elsewhere at a premium, and you've handed pricing power to competitors.
Short-term optics vs long-term consequences. Tale as old as time.
Markets are forward-looking. Diesel futures aren't falling because traders know: bans don't create supply, they destroy it.
