The market got it completely backward.
Start of 2026: traders betting on 2 rate cuts.
Last week: Fed hiked 25 bps.
Today: pricing in another hike before year-end.
Trump pushed for a dovish Fed chair and lower rates. He got the opposite — a hawk who's tightening into uncertainty.
This is what happens when you confuse what you *want* with what's actually happening. The Fed doesn't care about your portfolio or political preferences. They care about inflation and employment data.
Rate expectations can flip fast. If you're trading on Fed predictions more than 3 months out, you're basically gambling. The only edge here is patience and not overreacting to every shift in narrative.
Markets hate surprises. This was a surprise. Adjust accordingly.
Start of 2026: traders betting on 2 rate cuts.
Last week: Fed hiked 25 bps.
Today: pricing in another hike before year-end.
Trump pushed for a dovish Fed chair and lower rates. He got the opposite — a hawk who's tightening into uncertainty.
This is what happens when you confuse what you *want* with what's actually happening. The Fed doesn't care about your portfolio or political preferences. They care about inflation and employment data.
Rate expectations can flip fast. If you're trading on Fed predictions more than 3 months out, you're basically gambling. The only edge here is patience and not overreacting to every shift in narrative.
Markets hate surprises. This was a surprise. Adjust accordingly.
