So, where is the real move for $BTC ?
One thing feels a bit odd.... BTC shot up so quickly, yet why couldn't it sustain itself above the range high?
At first, it looked like the buyers had total control of the momentum. Then, the price wicked above the range high, only to face immediate rejection right there. That is the key question now.
Is this rejection just a brief pause, or the start of a move back into the range?
I’m not rushing into anything just yet.
There is a significant S/R level down around $79.2K. This level aligns well with the previous range structure, and the 0.382 Fib level is also right around there. So, if BTC retraces to that point, I wouldn't be surprised to see buyrs step in again. Interestingly, though, I’m not entirely focused on the downside. The $83K mark is still on my mind. The scenario could play out like this: a retest of $79.2K, a reaction there, and then another push to sweep the liquidity above the previous high.
There’s a psychological aspect to this as well.
Many traders might think, "It broke the high, so it’s going even higher." If the price then moves toward the $83K zone and sweeps the previous high, more "late buyers" might jump in, thinking it’s a confirmed breakout.
But for me, the real signal lies in what happens after that sweep.
Simply touching the high won't trigger a short setup for me.
If BTC reaches the $83K area, sweeps the previous high, faces a sharp rejection, and starts closing back inside the range - that becomes very interesting. It would clearly indicate a failure to gain aceptance after the liquidity sweep. That’s when I’d consider a short position. Even then, not immediately. I’d want to see if the structure breaks on lower timeframes (LTF) and if sellers show follow-through after the rejection.
And what if that doesn't happen?
Suppose BTC performs the sweep but stays above the range. Then, after a minor pullback, it continues making higher highs.
In that case, I’ll stay on the sidelines. The easiest mistake to make here is thinking, "It has rallied significantly, so I should short it."
Often, the market punishes precisely that line of thinking.
Honestly, if BTC maintains its strength, there is potential for the move to extend toward the $87K region. So, I have no intention of shorting simply because it looks overextended. My plan right now keeps both possibilities open.
First, I’m looking for a retest of $79.2K.
Then, the reaction in the $83K zone.
And most importantly — after the sweep, does BTC return inside the range, or does it establish acceptance outside of it?
I believe the reaction will be more significant than the subsequent major move.
I don't want to force a conviction in either direction just yet. Let the price show something first.
Then, I'll decide.
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