FOMC September: Is a Rate Hike the Start of a New Cycle?

The September FOMC meeting has become a major focus for crypto and traditional markets. August core CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, while market-implied expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed hike moved close to 90% after the inflation report.

If the Fed delivers a 25bp hike, I think the initial reaction could be cautious or bearish for $BTC and tech stocks, because higher rates generally increase the cost of capital and reduce liquidity available for risk assets. $BTC could face additional volatility as traders adjust their positions.
GOLD is more complicated. Higher rates can create pressure because gold doesn't generate yield, but persistent inflation and uncertainty could continue supporting demand for gold.

The bigger question is whether this is a one-time hike or the beginning of a longer tightening cycle. I would watch the Fed's statement, future rate guidance, Treasury yields and market reaction before making a major trade.

For my next trade, I would focus on B$BTC price action around the FOMC announcement, rather than chasing volatility immediately after the decision.

What do you expect: 25bp hike or no hike? And how do you think BTC, tech stocks and gold will react?

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