FOMC September: The Hike May Not Be the Real Shock
The market is already leaning heavily toward a 25bp Fed hike this week, with rate futures putting the probability above 90%.
But I think the bigger question comes after the decision.
If the Fed hikes because August inflation remains sticky, BTC and tech stocks could face pressure as yields and the cost of capital rise. Gold could also react sharply, depending on real yields and how hawkish the Fed sounds.
The real market test is the guidance:
One-off adjustment, or the beginning of another tightening cycle?
If Powell/Warsh signals more hikes ahead, I’d watch BTC’s reaction around key support, Nasdaq momentum, Treasury yields and gold’s response rather than trading the headline alone.
For me, the trade is about the next signal, not just the 25bp number.
#FedRateWatch
$SYN
$LSK
$ZHIPU
The market is already leaning heavily toward a 25bp Fed hike this week, with rate futures putting the probability above 90%.
But I think the bigger question comes after the decision.
If the Fed hikes because August inflation remains sticky, BTC and tech stocks could face pressure as yields and the cost of capital rise. Gold could also react sharply, depending on real yields and how hawkish the Fed sounds.
The real market test is the guidance:
One-off adjustment, or the beginning of another tightening cycle?
If Powell/Warsh signals more hikes ahead, I’d watch BTC’s reaction around key support, Nasdaq momentum, Treasury yields and gold’s response rather than trading the headline alone.
For me, the trade is about the next signal, not just the 25bp number.
#FedRateWatch
$SYN
$LSK
$ZHIPU
