30 straight days without falling back underwater. That's the actual milestone, not that short term holders are wildly profitable, they're not, this is about consistency, not magnitude.
Per CryptoQuant, STH cohort wallets, coins held under six months, have sat in at least partial profit since August 16, $168.2 billion in profit against $102.6 billion in losses as of this week. The broader investor base has held net profit since August 19, and spent output profit ratio crossed above its breakeven level of 1 that same day, staying narrowly above it since. Cost basis for one to three month holders sits around $63,372, three to six month holders closer to $73,190.
What makes 30 days meaningful is the comparison CryptoQuant draws. The last comparable streak was January, lasting under a week before breaking. May saw losses dominate the cohort entirely. This isn't a pattern showing up regularly, it's the first sustained stretch since the market topped, and CryptoQuant frames similar multi week stretches as having preceded the end of the 2022 bear market.
My honest read: this is a legitimate data point worth taking seriously, sustained profitability across a cohort known for reacting quickly and selling into weakness is genuinely different from a brief bounce. But I'd separate observation from conclusion, CryptoQuant calls this a prerequisite for a durable reversal, not confirmation of one, a necessary condition isn't a sufficient one.
Where I'd push back on getting ahead of this: staying intact through routine volatility is one input, not a standalone signal, narrowly above breakeven still means a meaningful share of this cohort remains close to cost basis, not comfortably ahead of it.
What I'm watching: whether this streak extends through any real test, a genuine pullback that pressures these cost basis levels, rather than just accumulating days during a calm stretch.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season#
Per CryptoQuant, STH cohort wallets, coins held under six months, have sat in at least partial profit since August 16, $168.2 billion in profit against $102.6 billion in losses as of this week. The broader investor base has held net profit since August 19, and spent output profit ratio crossed above its breakeven level of 1 that same day, staying narrowly above it since. Cost basis for one to three month holders sits around $63,372, three to six month holders closer to $73,190.
What makes 30 days meaningful is the comparison CryptoQuant draws. The last comparable streak was January, lasting under a week before breaking. May saw losses dominate the cohort entirely. This isn't a pattern showing up regularly, it's the first sustained stretch since the market topped, and CryptoQuant frames similar multi week stretches as having preceded the end of the 2022 bear market.
My honest read: this is a legitimate data point worth taking seriously, sustained profitability across a cohort known for reacting quickly and selling into weakness is genuinely different from a brief bounce. But I'd separate observation from conclusion, CryptoQuant calls this a prerequisite for a durable reversal, not confirmation of one, a necessary condition isn't a sufficient one.
Where I'd push back on getting ahead of this: staying intact through routine volatility is one input, not a standalone signal, narrowly above breakeven still means a meaningful share of this cohort remains close to cost basis, not comfortably ahead of it.
What I'm watching: whether this streak extends through any real test, a genuine pullback that pressures these cost basis levels, rather than just accumulating days during a calm stretch.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season#
