The Fed is about to make its next move, but I think the real question is what comes AFTER the hike. #FedRateWatch
The September FOMC meeting is underway, with markets heavily pricing a 25bp rate hike. Recent inflation data has kept the Fed under pressure, especially with August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month.
Personally, I would not be surprised by the hike. What matters more to me is whether this becomes the start of a longer tightening cycle or simply a one-off response to sticky inflation.
If the Fed hikes and sounds hawkish, I expect more pressure on risk assets. BTC and tech stocks could see volatility as traders reprice future liquidity. Gold could also react depending on real yields and the dollar.
But if the hike is already fully priced and Powell gives a less aggressive message, we could get the classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction.
For BTC, I am watching the reaction after the decision rather than blindly chasing the first candle. One thing I have learned around FOMC events: the first move is not always the real move.
DYOR
$AIN $AKE $POWER
#FedRateWatch #ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket
The September FOMC meeting is underway, with markets heavily pricing a 25bp rate hike. Recent inflation data has kept the Fed under pressure, especially with August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month.
Personally, I would not be surprised by the hike. What matters more to me is whether this becomes the start of a longer tightening cycle or simply a one-off response to sticky inflation.
If the Fed hikes and sounds hawkish, I expect more pressure on risk assets. BTC and tech stocks could see volatility as traders reprice future liquidity. Gold could also react depending on real yields and the dollar.
But if the hike is already fully priced and Powell gives a less aggressive message, we could get the classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction.
For BTC, I am watching the reaction after the decision rather than blindly chasing the first candle. One thing I have learned around FOMC events: the first move is not always the real move.
DYOR
$AIN $AKE $POWER
#FedRateWatch #ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket
