#FedRateWatch
The August core CPI print at +0.3% MoM keeps the Fed in a difficult position, and the market is now pricing a very high probability of a 25bp hike. For me, the bigger trade is not simply “hike = sell BTC.” The reaction will depend on the Fed’s forward guidance and Treasury yields.
My BTC plan is scenario-based.
Bullish setup: if BTC reclaims and holds $78,500–$79,000 after the decision, I would look for momentum toward $80,500 and then $82,000. A sustained breakout above $82,000 would strengthen the recovery structure. My invalidation for this setup would be a decisive move back below $76,500.
Bearish setup: if BTC loses $76,500 with strong volume and fails to reclaim it, I would watch $74,500 first and $72,000 next. A break below $72,000 would tell me the market is pricing a more persistent tightening cycle rather than a one-off hike.
I’m also watching the 10Y yield and DXY. If yields and the dollar keep rising, I would be more defensive on BTC and high-growth tech. Gold could also remain under pressure initially because higher real yields increase its opportunity cost.
I would rather trade confirmed levels than chase the first FOMC volatility spike.
Not financial advice. DYOR. #FedRateWatch #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto $XAU $XAG $BTC
The August core CPI print at +0.3% MoM keeps the Fed in a difficult position, and the market is now pricing a very high probability of a 25bp hike. For me, the bigger trade is not simply “hike = sell BTC.” The reaction will depend on the Fed’s forward guidance and Treasury yields.
My BTC plan is scenario-based.
Bullish setup: if BTC reclaims and holds $78,500–$79,000 after the decision, I would look for momentum toward $80,500 and then $82,000. A sustained breakout above $82,000 would strengthen the recovery structure. My invalidation for this setup would be a decisive move back below $76,500.
Bearish setup: if BTC loses $76,500 with strong volume and fails to reclaim it, I would watch $74,500 first and $72,000 next. A break below $72,000 would tell me the market is pricing a more persistent tightening cycle rather than a one-off hike.
I’m also watching the 10Y yield and DXY. If yields and the dollar keep rising, I would be more defensive on BTC and high-growth tech. Gold could also remain under pressure initially because higher real yields increase its opportunity cost.
I would rather trade confirmed levels than chase the first FOMC volatility spike.
Not financial advice. DYOR. #FedRateWatch #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto $XAU $XAG $BTC
