#FedRateWatch
The August CPI print has changed the risk equation for this week. Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM, above expectations, while markets are now pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25bp Fed hike.
My view is that a hike is increasingly likely, but I would not automatically assume it marks the beginning of a long hiking cycle. The bigger signal will be the Fed’s guidance on what comes next. If inflation remains sticky and energy costs continue creating pressure, another hike could become a realistic scenario. Recent forecasts have already started moving toward multiple hikes rather than treating this as an isolated move.
For markets, my bias is initially defensive: BTC and high-growth tech stocks could face pressure from higher yields and tighter liquidity. Gold could also react negatively at first if real yields and the dollar strengthen, although persistent inflation and geopolitical risk could support gold later.
I’m watching BTC price structure, Treasury yields, and the dollar before making my next move. I prefer reacting to confirmation rather than chasing the first volatility spike.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#FedRateWatch #BTC #Crypto #Stocks $BTC $XAUT $XAU
The August CPI print has changed the risk equation for this week. Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM, above expectations, while markets are now pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25bp Fed hike.
My view is that a hike is increasingly likely, but I would not automatically assume it marks the beginning of a long hiking cycle. The bigger signal will be the Fed’s guidance on what comes next. If inflation remains sticky and energy costs continue creating pressure, another hike could become a realistic scenario. Recent forecasts have already started moving toward multiple hikes rather than treating this as an isolated move.
For markets, my bias is initially defensive: BTC and high-growth tech stocks could face pressure from higher yields and tighter liquidity. Gold could also react negatively at first if real yields and the dollar strengthen, although persistent inflation and geopolitical risk could support gold later.
I’m watching BTC price structure, Treasury yields, and the dollar before making my next move. I prefer reacting to confirmation rather than chasing the first volatility spike.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#FedRateWatch #BTC #Crypto #Stocks $BTC $XAUT $XAU
