#FedRateWatch
With August core CPI coming in at 0.3% MoM and the market pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a 25bps hike, the Fed is in a tight spot this week.
Here is my direct breakdown of what to expect and how I'm positioning:
Rate Hike Outlook: One-Off or New Cycle?
I anticipate the Fed will deliver the 25bps hike to re-anchor inflation expectations, but it will be framed strictly as a one-off adjustment rather than the start of a prolonged hiking cycle. Labor market data and debt-servicing costs won't tolerate extended tightening.
Market Impact: BTC, Tech Stocks, & Gold
Bitcoin ($BTC ): Short-term bearish knee-jerk, followed by a bullish expansion. An immediate spike in bond yields usually sweeps lower liquidity pools, but once the market confirms the Fed is done after this hike, BTC tends to treat the clarity as a risk-on signal.
Tech Stocks: Bearish in the immediate term. Multiple compression hits high-valuation tech first whenever rates climb, meaning tech will likely lag risk assets through the monthly close.
Gold: Bullish resilience. Gold has consistently decoupled from traditional yield pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty, and any dips into key support will likely get absorbed by sovereign demand.
Trade Plan & Execution
I’m holding my spot BTC allocation and waiting for an intraday flush below recent range lows post-announcement to bid the discount. If we sweep liquidity and print an aggressive reclamation on the 4-hour chart, I will be entering a long position targeting the range highs.
Are you positioning defensively for the hike, or are you buying the volatility dip? Drop your thoughts below.
#GOLD #Bitcoin
$BTC
With August core CPI coming in at 0.3% MoM and the market pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a 25bps hike, the Fed is in a tight spot this week.
Here is my direct breakdown of what to expect and how I'm positioning:
Rate Hike Outlook: One-Off or New Cycle?
I anticipate the Fed will deliver the 25bps hike to re-anchor inflation expectations, but it will be framed strictly as a one-off adjustment rather than the start of a prolonged hiking cycle. Labor market data and debt-servicing costs won't tolerate extended tightening.
Market Impact: BTC, Tech Stocks, & Gold
Bitcoin ($BTC ): Short-term bearish knee-jerk, followed by a bullish expansion. An immediate spike in bond yields usually sweeps lower liquidity pools, but once the market confirms the Fed is done after this hike, BTC tends to treat the clarity as a risk-on signal.
Tech Stocks: Bearish in the immediate term. Multiple compression hits high-valuation tech first whenever rates climb, meaning tech will likely lag risk assets through the monthly close.
Gold: Bullish resilience. Gold has consistently decoupled from traditional yield pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty, and any dips into key support will likely get absorbed by sovereign demand.
Trade Plan & Execution
I’m holding my spot BTC allocation and waiting for an intraday flush below recent range lows post-announcement to bid the discount. If we sweep liquidity and print an aggressive reclamation on the 4-hour chart, I will be entering a long position targeting the range highs.
Are you positioning defensively for the hike, or are you buying the volatility dip? Drop your thoughts below.
#GOLD #Bitcoin
$BTC
