Filecoin finally did something I had been waiting to see.

FIL broke above $0.87 after spending roughly a month inside a range and briefly pushed above $1.

At first glance this looks like a clean breakout.

But when I looked deeper the move became more complicated.

FIL jumped around 20% and reached roughly $1.03 before falling back toward $0.97. At the same time 24 hour volume exploded by more than 1000% and reached around $397M.

That is real participation.

But there is one detail I would not ignore.

RSI reached 78.

That puts FIL firmly in overbought territory and helps explain why sellers appeared after the move toward $1.03.

The more important level for me is not $1.

It is $0.87.

That was the resistance that blocked FIL before the breakout. If buyers can defend $0.87 during the next pullback then the market is showing that the old ceiling has actually become support.

If that happens then another attempt at $1.03 would make sense.

But the fundamentals give me a reason to stay cautious.

Filecoin is working on Solstice which could connect block rewards more directly with verified network usage and transactional activity.

That is an interesting change because it gives FIL a stronger link between network economics and actual utilization.

The problem is that current usage is still relatively small.

FVM has around 1.3K daily active addresses while DeFi TVL is only around $3.1M.

So part of this rally appears to be pricing in future growth rather than reflecting strong usage today.

There is another warning.

Open interest climbed toward $284M during the move and futures volume was around 10 times spot activity.

That tells me leverage is playing a major role in this breakout.

Leverage can push FIL through $1 quickly.

It can also send it back down just as quickly.

So I would not chase the candle here.

For me the real confirmation comes if FIL pulls back and holds $0.87.

Above that level the $1 to $1.03 area remains open.

Below $0.87 and the breakout starts looking more like a temporary liquidity event.

The price has broken out.

Now Filecoin has to prove the network can grow into the valuation traders are already pricing in.