The Fed’s September decision is no longer just about “hike or hold.” The inflation data has changed the setup. August PPI came in at 5.4% YoY, while CPI rose 0.4% MoM and core CPI came in hotter than expected. Goldman Sachs has now shifted to expecting a 25 bps hike, with markets increasingly pricing the same outcome. But here’s where it gets interesting. The market may already be prepared for the hike. So the bigger question for $BTC and risk assets is: What does the Fed say about the road ahead? A one-time 25 bps hike could be interpreted as a policy adjustment. But if Chair Warsh signals that inflation is still too persistent and more hikes could follow, liquidity expectations could tighten significantly. And there’s another layer: Trump wants lower rates, while White House adviser Kevin Hassett has argued there is no clear case for hiking. That creates a fascinating policy gap: Markets are pricing tighter policy. The White House wants easier policy. The Fed has to defend its inflation mandate. For Bitcoin, the September 16 decision may be less important than the rate path that comes with it. If the Fed hikes but signals restraint afterward → potentially bullish for risk assets. If it hikes and signals more tightening → $BTC could face another liquidity shock. The real trade isn't “25 bps or no 25 bps.” It’s what happens after the first move. 👀 $BTC $ETH