Robotaxis: a commoditized, bond-like return business — and $UBER wins.
Everyone's excited about $TSLA robotaxis. But once self-driving tech becomes widely available (not just Tesla/Waymo), the business gets commoditized fast.
Anyone who owns a robotaxi competes with every other owner for limited returns. Look at Turo: early car owners earned high returns, but competition drove those down to a small premium over corporate bonds — maybe 3-5%.
Same dynamic will hit self-driving fleets. Returns get competed away.
The winner? The platform connecting robotaxi owners with passengers: $UBER. They own the network, the demand, the pricing power.
As a PM, I like businesses with durable moats and pricing leverage — not commodity asset owners chasing yield compression. $UBER fits that profile as autonomous scales.
Everyone's excited about $TSLA robotaxis. But once self-driving tech becomes widely available (not just Tesla/Waymo), the business gets commoditized fast.
Anyone who owns a robotaxi competes with every other owner for limited returns. Look at Turo: early car owners earned high returns, but competition drove those down to a small premium over corporate bonds — maybe 3-5%.
Same dynamic will hit self-driving fleets. Returns get competed away.
The winner? The platform connecting robotaxi owners with passengers: $UBER. They own the network, the demand, the pricing power.
As a PM, I like businesses with durable moats and pricing leverage — not commodity asset owners chasing yield compression. $UBER fits that profile as autonomous scales.