#cpiwatch
🚨 CPI Just Made the Fed’s Job Harder — But Inflation Isn’t Simply “Heating Up.”
August CPI came in almost exactly as expected.
Headline CPI: +3.4% YoY.
But Core CPI?
+0.3% MoM vs +0.2% expected.
That sounds hawkish.
Until you look at the annual trend. 👀
Core CPI actually fell to 2.4% YoY from 2.5%.
So the message is mixed:
Monthly pressure got hotter.
Annual core inflation kept cooling.
And markets focused on the first part.
After a surprisingly strong 162K August jobs gain vs roughly 55K expected, expectations for a 25bp Fed hike jumped toward 66–70%, compared with about 44% earlier in August.
Then there’s oil.
Gasoline prices jumped 3.9% in August and accounted for more than a third of the monthly CPI increase.
But here’s the part many people may be missing:
August CPI may already be backward-looking.
The latest Middle East escalation pushed Brent above $100 — and that move wasn't fully reflected in August's inflation data.
That makes September CPI potentially more important.
Because if energy prices stay elevated, the Fed may face an uncomfortable combination:
Cooling annual core inflation + renewed monthly price pressure + a still-resilient labor market.
🧠 Square Insight:
Markets don't just react to whether inflation is high. They react to whether the trend is changing — and August CPI sent two different signals at once.
The bigger question:
Will September CPI confirm disinflation — or show that the oil shock is coming back?
$BTC
#Inflation #Fed #Bitcoin
Market commentary only. Not financial advice.
🚨 CPI Just Made the Fed’s Job Harder — But Inflation Isn’t Simply “Heating Up.”
August CPI came in almost exactly as expected.
Headline CPI: +3.4% YoY.
But Core CPI?
+0.3% MoM vs +0.2% expected.
That sounds hawkish.
Until you look at the annual trend. 👀
Core CPI actually fell to 2.4% YoY from 2.5%.
So the message is mixed:
Monthly pressure got hotter.
Annual core inflation kept cooling.
And markets focused on the first part.
After a surprisingly strong 162K August jobs gain vs roughly 55K expected, expectations for a 25bp Fed hike jumped toward 66–70%, compared with about 44% earlier in August.
Then there’s oil.
Gasoline prices jumped 3.9% in August and accounted for more than a third of the monthly CPI increase.
But here’s the part many people may be missing:
August CPI may already be backward-looking.
The latest Middle East escalation pushed Brent above $100 — and that move wasn't fully reflected in August's inflation data.
That makes September CPI potentially more important.
Because if energy prices stay elevated, the Fed may face an uncomfortable combination:
Cooling annual core inflation + renewed monthly price pressure + a still-resilient labor market.
🧠 Square Insight:
Markets don't just react to whether inflation is high. They react to whether the trend is changing — and August CPI sent two different signals at once.
The bigger question:
Will September CPI confirm disinflation — or show that the oil shock is coming back?
$BTC
#Inflation #Fed #Bitcoin
Market commentary only. Not financial advice.
