NFP already beat and now CPI is out. Core came in at 0.3% instead of 0.2%. That’s the number the Fed actually watches.
Jobs were strong (162k vs the low 50s they expected) and they revised the previous months higher too. Labor is not breaking. Inflation is not cleanly falling either. After sitting at 3.50–3.75% all year, a hold next week looks weak. I think they hike 25bps on the 15th–16th.
Not chasing risk into the meeting. I’m long gold on futures instead.
Why:
Energy is still high and that keeps inflation sticky
Geopolitics is messy, so gold still has a bid
If they hike but don’t crush inflation, gold holds up better than growth names
Live trade below. If they hike and the statement isn’t extra hawkish, I’ll add risk later.
Until then I’m staying defensive on stocks and holding this gold long.If this logic makes sense, drop a follow. What’s your call — hike or hold?
#CPIWatch
Jobs were strong (162k vs the low 50s they expected) and they revised the previous months higher too. Labor is not breaking. Inflation is not cleanly falling either. After sitting at 3.50–3.75% all year, a hold next week looks weak. I think they hike 25bps on the 15th–16th.
Not chasing risk into the meeting. I’m long gold on futures instead.
Why:
Energy is still high and that keeps inflation sticky
Geopolitics is messy, so gold still has a bid
If they hike but don’t crush inflation, gold holds up better than growth names
Live trade below. If they hike and the statement isn’t extra hawkish, I’ll add risk later.
Until then I’m staying defensive on stocks and holding this gold long.If this logic makes sense, drop a follow. What’s your call — hike or hold?
#CPIWatch
