NFP already beat the print. CPI dropped today. Headline came in at 0.4% month on month and 3.4% year on year. That part was more or less priced in. Core did the real damage. 0.3% on the month. The street wanted 0.2%.
I had the charts open last night. After I saw the gasoline line, I stopped expecting a soft headline. This morning the number landed and I wasn’t shocked. What shocked me was how many people were still talking about a hold.
I’ll say it straight. Jobs are firm. Core didn’t cool. On September 16 the Fed has a weak case to sit still. My base case is a 25 bps hike.
I’m not bullish on risk from here. After NFP I cut a small crypto long. This morning I left the gold position as it is. If services inflation stays sticky, gold is my hedge. I didn’t add stocks. I want the FOMC tone first.
Keep size small. Don’t force a trade into the meeting. The move after the decision is the one that matters.
Hike or hold on your book?
#CPIWatch
#BNBTops730USDT #USToSanctionBigBankMonday
I had the charts open last night. After I saw the gasoline line, I stopped expecting a soft headline. This morning the number landed and I wasn’t shocked. What shocked me was how many people were still talking about a hold.
I’ll say it straight. Jobs are firm. Core didn’t cool. On September 16 the Fed has a weak case to sit still. My base case is a 25 bps hike.
I’m not bullish on risk from here. After NFP I cut a small crypto long. This morning I left the gold position as it is. If services inflation stays sticky, gold is my hedge. I didn’t add stocks. I want the FOMC tone first.
Keep size small. Don’t force a trade into the meeting. The move after the decision is the one that matters.
Hike or hold on your book?
#CPIWatch
#BNBTops730USDT #USToSanctionBigBankMonday
