Market's now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting.
Remember: the market has been wrong about Fed moves more times than we can count. In 2022, everyone said "pivot soon" — rates kept climbing. In early 2023, everyone screamed "cuts coming" — took over a year.
Pricing in certainty is how you get caught offsides. The Fed doesn't care what futures traders think. They care about data, and data changes.
Don't trade probabilities like they're facts. Stay flexible.
Remember: the market has been wrong about Fed moves more times than we can count. In 2022, everyone said "pivot soon" — rates kept climbing. In early 2023, everyone screamed "cuts coming" — took over a year.
Pricing in certainty is how you get caught offsides. The Fed doesn't care what futures traders think. They care about data, and data changes.
Don't trade probabilities like they're facts. Stay flexible.