HUGEEEE CPI print incoming today! $SPY $QQQ
CPI is the print that matters for next weeks FED decision
Futures are already leaning hike, 69.6% priced for 375-400, only 30.4% for a hold at 350-375, 0% chance of a cut.
So todays CPI is the swing factor:
🔥 Hotter than expected = hike
🧊 Cooler than expected = pause
The FED is in a horrible spot. Trump removed Powell and brought in Kevin Warsh with a clear brief to CUT.
Inflation is still the problem, and the clean move is to hike here with the rest of the world.. but the political pressure to cut has not gone away..
A lot of people think a Warsh cut in the coming meetings would be rocket fuel for stocks. I disagree. If the market decides the FED is no longer independent, that is how you get a real correction, not a melt up
Trust in the FED is the whole game. Lose that and risk assets do not like it 📉
CPI is the print that matters for next weeks FED decision
Futures are already leaning hike, 69.6% priced for 375-400, only 30.4% for a hold at 350-375, 0% chance of a cut.
So todays CPI is the swing factor:
🔥 Hotter than expected = hike
🧊 Cooler than expected = pause
The FED is in a horrible spot. Trump removed Powell and brought in Kevin Warsh with a clear brief to CUT.
Inflation is still the problem, and the clean move is to hike here with the rest of the world.. but the political pressure to cut has not gone away..
A lot of people think a Warsh cut in the coming meetings would be rocket fuel for stocks. I disagree. If the market decides the FED is no longer independent, that is how you get a real correction, not a melt up
Trust in the FED is the whole game. Lose that and risk assets do not like it 📉
