Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole today, 14:00 UTC / 10:00 ET. First major speech as Fed chair.
Market cares about one thing: is inflation still structural or transitory. Does policy tighten further or hold at 3.5-3.75%.
Warsh has given zero forward guidance so far. Vague language, internal working groups, standard 2% target rhetoric. Hawkish committee members want tightening. White House wants cuts.
Volatility likely across Treasuries, $DXY, equities, $BTC. Even noncommittal tone can trigger sharp moves on debut.
Risk-on positioning into the speech.
Market cares about one thing: is inflation still structural or transitory. Does policy tighten further or hold at 3.5-3.75%.
Warsh has given zero forward guidance so far. Vague language, internal working groups, standard 2% target rhetoric. Hawkish committee members want tightening. White House wants cuts.
Volatility likely across Treasuries, $DXY, equities, $BTC. Even noncommittal tone can trigger sharp moves on debut.
Risk-on positioning into the speech.
