Today, supply in profit has indeed become the majority again, with 69% of it in profit.

It's true that investors returning to profit is a good thing for the market, but caution is needed when looking at this from a supply perspective.

During this cycle, supply in profit has always been the majority (>50%) except for 15 days, notably in July. This is entirely normal given the share of old illiquid supply.

Over time, we won't even drop below 50% anymore.

To complete this analysis, we also need to look at it in terms of capital deployed in Bitcoin, i.e. the dollar amount.

Today, the majority of the capitalization invested in Bitcoin remains at a loss. For a capitalization of around $1T, there is currently $617B invested at a loss versus $447B in profit.

We're approaching a point of equilibrium where investors will be faced with the choice of pulling their capital out without a loss after enduring this correction, or leaving it in hoping to finally turn a profit.

This is the real test point for the market.

On another note, some have pointed out that we haven't seen a capitulation as strong as in previous cycles, meaning not as much pain in the market.

The capital that ended up at a loss still hit a historic record of $935B. It's on this point that we can see just how tough this bear market has been compared to the others.

Written by Darkfost