For the first time since the October 2025 ATH, both 30-day spot and futures demand growth have flipped positive. The signal is still modest, but if it persists for roughly a month, it could mark the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull cycle.

Spot demand has recovered sharply from around -206K BTC on July 23 toward and above zero. Historically, a recovery through this level has produced an ~18% median return over 60 days, with a 78% win rate.

Whales have also returned to accumulation, adding roughly 43K BTC (~$2.75B) over the past 60 days after months of net selling.

ETF flows have strengthened, with August MTD inflows around $2.1B and several days recording $500–600M+ in net inflows. Meanwhile, expanding OI and the strongest short squeeze since November 2024 helped accelerate BTC from the $63K–$65K range toward $70K and later $75K–$77K.

The Bull Score has also moved back into bullish territory (≥60), while a record-sized profit-side UTXO movement suggests trapped holders are finally taking profits.

The key difference from previous failed bounces: this move is showing genuine spot participation, not just leverage.

Structure is constructive, but confirmation still requires sustained demand above zero and stronger volume follow-through.

The dual-demand signal is the one to watch.

Written by theophiluspep