TL;DR

Bernstein used South Korea's export data as an indicator of HBM revenue, estimating Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue to reach $12 billion, about 30% higher than its original forecast.

In July, Samsung's related region's exports increased by 122% compared to April, with unit prices doubling, indicating that the growth may be primarily driven by the high-price HBM4 volume.

SK Hynix's related exports declined by about 27% compared to April, and the baseline regression model indicates a 20% quarterly decline in HBM revenue for the third quarter. However, single-month data and seasonal differences introduce significant uncertainty into the results.

Bernstein attributes SK Hynix's weakness to delayed shipments of HBM4 related to Rubin, but this is still an analyst's speculation and not a confirmed causal relationship by NVIDIA or SK Hynix.

HBM prices have not skyrocketed in sync with traditional DRAM prices. Samsung's increase in unit value reflects more of a product mix shift to HBM4 rather than a significant price hike for similar-spec products.

Bernstein remains optimistic about Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, believing that the next round of earnings revisions is more likely to come from the 2027 HBM contract prices rather than relying solely on this year's market share changes.

South Korea's July memory export data provided the first set of leading signals for Samsung and SK Hynix's third-quarter HBM business.

Bernstein has long been tracking South Korea's multi-chip memory exports to China, Taiwan, and Malaysia. The report suggests that these exports have a strong correlation with Samsung and SK Hynix's quarterly HBM revenue: Taiwan is a key location for CoWoS advanced packaging, and Malaysia has Intel's EMIB packaging facilities.

In July, South Korea's multi-chip memory exports to China, Taiwan, and Malaysia declined by 32% from the previous historic high in June. However, the report attributes this change mainly to intra-quarter seasonality. Compared to the first month of the previous quarter in April, July exports still increased by 13%, with a year-on-year increase of 64%, indicating that overall HBM demand has not significantly weakened.

While maintaining strong overall volume, the export trends of the two South Korean memory manufacturers have diverged: Samsung's related exports continue to rise, while SK Hynix's related data are significantly below Bernstein's expectations.

Samsung's Third-Quarter HBM Revenue May Exceed Expectations by 30%

Bernstein used Chungcheongnam-do's exports as a proxy indicator for Samsung's HBM shipments, as Samsung's related backend production and packaging facilities are mainly located in that region.

In July, Chungcheongnam-do's exports of multi-chip memory to China, Taiwan, and Malaysia reached $2.2 billion. Despite a 35% decline from the seasonal peak in June, this amount represented a 122% growth from April. Samsung's related exports have also exceeded SK Hynix's for two consecutive months.

According to the regression analysis based on historical export data and HBM revenue, Bernstein estimates that Samsung's HBM revenue in the third quarter could reach around $12 billion, representing a sequential increase of about 80% and exceeding its original forecast of around $9.3 billion by about 30%.

If only recent data since the first quarter of 2025 is used for regression, the forecast value would further rise to $12.6 billion, corresponding to a sequential growth of about 90%.

South Korea's monthly export value of multi-chip memory to China, Taiwan, and Malaysia (in billion dollars) and year-on-year growth rate. Although the July export value declined sequentially due to seasonal factors, it still increased by 64% year-on-year, indicating that the overall HBM demand remains robust.

However, this number is still a model estimate and not company guidance. Samsung's exports usually concentrate in the last two months of the quarter, with the first month of the quarter averaging less than 20% of the total quarter's exports since 2025. Therefore, whether the third-quarter revenue can ultimately reach the model's forecast will depend on the actual shipments in August and September.

Bernstein believes that the July data is at least consistent with Samsung's previous direction: the company expects third-quarter HBM4 sales to more than triple sequentially and account for over 60% of HBM sales in the second half of 2026.

Doubling Unit Value, HBM4 Becomes Samsung's Growth Driver

In addition to the export volume, the export unit value of Samsung's related products has also significantly increased.

Export value of multi-chip memory from Chungcheongnam-do (Samsung's HBM packaging location) to China, Taiwan, and Malaysia (in million dollars) compared to Samsung's quarterly HBM revenue (average per quarter). The July export value reached $2.2 billion, a 122% increase from April, marking the second consecutive month higher than SK Hynix. Right Chart: Based on historical data regression analysis, the July export data suggests that Samsung's third-quarter 2026 HBM revenue could reach $12 billion, with a sequential growth of about 80%, exceeding Bernstein's original forecast by about 30%.

In July, the export unit value of multi-chip memory from Chungcheongnam-do increased by another 21% sequentially, more than doubling from the April level and approaching four times that of SK Hynix's related region. Due to the higher capacity, stacking layers, and technical complexity of HBM4, Bernstein believes that this change likely reflects a rapid increase in Samsung's HBM4 shipment share.

This does not mean that Samsung has doubled the price of HBM with the same specifications within a few months. The unit export price will also be affected by product structure, capacity specifications, and packaging combination, and can only serve as a directional indicator of the average selling price. A more reasonable explanation is that Samsung is replacing some HBM3 and HBM3E with a higher-priced HBM4, thereby increasing the overall export value.

This is also a key opportunity for Samsung to regain market share. Previously, SK Hynix took the lead with HBM3E and a closer supply relationship with NVIDIA; as we enter the HBM4 cycle, the competition is shifting towards who can complete validation earlier, improve yield rates, and achieve scale delivery.

SK Hynix’s Export Performance Weakens, But Monthly Data Does Not Directly Equate to Market Share Reversal

In contrast to Samsung, SK Hynix's related exports notably weakened in July.

Bernstein used exports from Chungcheongbuk-do and Icheon as indicators of SK Hynix's HBM shipments. In July, the export value in these two regions decreased by 28% compared to June and by about 27% compared to April.

Based on this, the baseline regression model estimates that SK Hynix's HBM revenue for the third quarter may be only $5.6 billion, a decrease of about 20% from the previous quarter, which is 55% lower than Bernstein's original forecast. If this prediction holds true, Samsung's HBM revenue in the third quarter will significantly surpass that of SK Hynix.

However, the uncertainty of this prediction is much higher for SK Hynix than for Samsung. The report also points out that if SK Hynix follows its historical seasonal pattern with shipments concentrated in the latter part of the quarter, its HBM revenue for the third quarter could still reach $12 billion, close to Bernstein's original forecast.

In other words, based on the same set of July data under different seasonal assumptions, there could be a huge range of $5.6 billion to $12 billion. At this stage, a more cautious assessment is not that "SK Hynix has already lost its lead," but rather that its performance at the beginning of the third quarter was weaker than expected, and whether it can catch up in August and September will determine the final market share.

Bernstein speculates that the weakness may come from delays in Rubin-related HBM4 shipments. SK Hynix had previously stated that HBM4 began mass production in the second quarter and will ramp up fully in the second half of the year. However, attributing the July export decline directly to NVIDIA's Rubin progress is still an analyst's inference based on industry dynamics and has not yet been explicitly confirmed by the companies involved.

HBM Did Not Follow the Traditional DRAM Price Increase Trend

The report also points out that the price trends of HBM and traditional memory are diverging.

Since the third quarter of 2025, the price of traditional memory has increased by about five times cumulatively, but the export unit price of SK Hynix's related products has remained generally stable. Samsung's unit price has approximately doubled, mainly driven by the increased proportion of HBM4, rather than a significant simultaneous price hike of existing products like HBM3E.

This means that the contract pricing, supply relationships, and product iteration cycle of HBM are partially detaching it from the traditional DRAM spot price fluctuations. The short-term price increase of traditional DRAM does not necessarily proportionally transmit to HBM, as the profit variations of the latter depend more on the proportion of new-generation products and annual customer contracts.

Bernstein believes that suppliers and customers have already begun negotiating 2027 HBM contracts, and expects that a price increase will drive upward revisions to Samsung's and SK Hynix's profit outlook next year. Compared to the share changes in a single quarter of the third quarter, this may be a more critical pricing variable for the next phase of the memory sector.

Malaysia's Exports Surge, Remains an Unresolved Variable in the Supply Chain

In July, South Korea's exports of multi-chip memory to Malaysia increased by 20% month-on-month to around $1.3 billion, continuing the rapid growth of the past several quarters. Samsung still accounts for the majority of this, but SK Hynix's exports have also increased significantly.

Bernstein speculates that this HBM may be flowing to Intel's EMIB advanced packaging facility in Malaysia, to equip server chips with HBM. However, the report also acknowledges that it is currently difficult to explain why the related exports are growing so early before product mass production.

Therefore, Malaysia's exports are more suitable as a follow-up supply chain clue, rather than directly equivalent to Intel's customer orders or specific product volume.

Overall, the July data strengthens the logic of Samsung catching up in the HBM4 cycle, but it is not yet enough to confirm that the long-term market share pattern has reversed. What really needs to be observed next is whether Samsung can continue the export growth in August and September, and whether SK Hynix can catch up on the shipment gap from the beginning of the third quarter as HBM4 ramps up.

Market Share Reversal Still Awaits August and September Data

The July export data reinforces the logic of Samsung accelerating its catch-up in the HBM4 cycle: the related export scale has significantly increased, unit value has rapidly risen, and it corroborates the company's provided HBM4 sales guidance.

However, this data is still insufficient to confirm that Samsung has already regained its leading position in the HBM market on an annual basis.

First, Bernstein's model uses regional exports and company revenue for regression, not actual order data from the companies. Second, if HBM packaging is shifted overseas from South Korea, or if some products are further packaged domestically in South Korea, customs data may not fully capture this. Finally, monthly exports are also subject to customer acceptance, shipping arrangements, and quarterly seasonal effects.

Next, we need to observe three variables: whether Samsung's August and September exports can continue to grow, whether SK Hynix's exports and unit value will rebound with the ramp-up of HBM4, and whether the contract price for HBM in 2027 for both companies can be substantially increased.

If Samsung's exports continue to grow while SK Hynix fails to catch up, HBM4 may drive a more substantial change in market share. If SK Hynix concentrates its deliveries in the last two months of the quarter, the divergence in July is more likely just a timing difference in shipments.

Therefore, the current data is not so much about the HBM competition having reached a conclusion, but rather about Samsung re-entering the race for market share at a pace that may be faster than previously anticipated by the market.