The Treasury buyback program won't move the needle on long-term rates. Not really.
Buybacks only work if you've got unlimited ammo and the guts to deploy it. The Treasury has neither. They're tinkering at the margins while the real drivers — deficit trajectory, inflation expectations, Fed policy, global demand — dwarf anything they can do with these operations.
It's financial theater. Might smooth out some technical quirks in specific maturities, sure. But durable impact on the curve? No chance.
Markets aren't stupid. If the underlying fundamentals don't support lower long rates, a few billion in buybacks won't change that. You need credibility and scale. This has neither.
Buybacks only work if you've got unlimited ammo and the guts to deploy it. The Treasury has neither. They're tinkering at the margins while the real drivers — deficit trajectory, inflation expectations, Fed policy, global demand — dwarf anything they can do with these operations.
It's financial theater. Might smooth out some technical quirks in specific maturities, sure. But durable impact on the curve? No chance.
Markets aren't stupid. If the underlying fundamentals don't support lower long rates, a few billion in buybacks won't change that. You need credibility and scale. This has neither.