U.S. inflation is cooling — but that doesn't necessarily mean crypto leads the next move.
The numbers:
CPI: 3.5% → 3.4% YoY
Core CPI: 2.6% → 2.5%
PPI: 5.5% → 4.7% vs. 4.9% expected
CPI was exactly in line with expectations.
PPI was the interesting part.
Producer inflation cooled faster than expected while the labor market is slowing. That combination reduces pressure on the Fed to maintain an increasingly hawkish path.
📉 And market expectations are already changing.
Two weeks ago, markets expected a September hike and three hikes by year-end.
Now the scenario has shifted toward just one hike in October, with no additional hikes expected over the following 12 months.
The major risk remains geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
If that uncertainty decreases while inflation continues cooling, markets could eventually move from pricing “fewer hikes” toward pricing rate cuts.
That could push Treasury yields lower.
📈 But equities may benefit first.
A potential Anthropic IPO in September/October could create another source of demand for AI-related stocks several weeks before the listing: semiconductors, memory, data centers and infrastructure.
That creates an interesting liquidity sequence:
Now: equities lead; crypto, metals and bonds recover more gradually.
Later: an equity correction or post-IPO sell-the-fact could release liquidity into other asset classes.
The next major crypto move may therefore depend less on crypto itself — and more on where capital exits after the equity rally.
Where do you expect the next liquidity rotation?
#bitcoin #crypto #FederalReserve #Inflation #NASDAQ
The numbers:
CPI: 3.5% → 3.4% YoY
Core CPI: 2.6% → 2.5%
PPI: 5.5% → 4.7% vs. 4.9% expected
CPI was exactly in line with expectations.
PPI was the interesting part.
Producer inflation cooled faster than expected while the labor market is slowing. That combination reduces pressure on the Fed to maintain an increasingly hawkish path.
📉 And market expectations are already changing.
Two weeks ago, markets expected a September hike and three hikes by year-end.
Now the scenario has shifted toward just one hike in October, with no additional hikes expected over the following 12 months.
The major risk remains geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
If that uncertainty decreases while inflation continues cooling, markets could eventually move from pricing “fewer hikes” toward pricing rate cuts.
That could push Treasury yields lower.
📈 But equities may benefit first.
A potential Anthropic IPO in September/October could create another source of demand for AI-related stocks several weeks before the listing: semiconductors, memory, data centers and infrastructure.
That creates an interesting liquidity sequence:
Now: equities lead; crypto, metals and bonds recover more gradually.
Later: an equity correction or post-IPO sell-the-fact could release liquidity into other asset classes.
The next major crypto move may therefore depend less on crypto itself — and more on where capital exits after the equity rally.
Where do you expect the next liquidity rotation?
#bitcoin #crypto #FederalReserve #Inflation #NASDAQ