TLDR
Bitcoin has fallen to its cost of production zone, a level that has marked past bear market bottoms.
Price is holding near $63,000 to $64,000, down about 50% from its 2025 high.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $144.6 million in outflows on August 10, ending a five day streak of inflows.
Bollinger Band width dropped to 3.8%, the lowest volatility reading in two years.
Long-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses, though not yet at levels seen in past cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin has dropped to what analysts call its cost of production zone. This level has marked the bottom of past bear markets.
The price has been sitting near $63,000 to $64,000 for weeks. That’s a drop of nearly 50% from the 2025 all-time high.
Signs Pointing to a Bottom
Some of the money that left crypto this year moved into AI stocks and memory chip makers. That memory chip cycle may be peaking, which could send capital back into Bitcoin by late 2026 or early 2027.
Inflation has been easing over recent months. If that trend holds, the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates, which tends to push investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin.
The war between the US and Iran may also be nearing an end. President Trump has pushed for a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could steady oil prices and investor sentiment.
Bitcoin has also followed a four-year cycle since 2017, hitting new highs in 2017, 2021, and 2025. If that pattern continues, the next rally could begin around 2027, with a fresh peak expected by 2029.
LATEST: Bitcoin drops down to its ‘Cost of Production’ zone, a level historically associated with bear-market bottoms. pic.twitter.com/yPA2u0syjx
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) August 13, 2026
ETF Outflows and Price Action
On August 10, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $144.6 million in outflows. That broke a five day streak that had brought in $865.3 million.
Bitcoin was also down about 3% from Sunday’s high of $65,474. The $65,000 to $67,000 range is a key supply zone that price has failed to clear.
That failure points to bearish control for now. Liquidation levels below the market could pull price down toward $57,000.
At the same time, volatility has compressed sharply. Analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X that Bollinger Band width sits at 3.8%, one of the tightest readings in two years, and said this kind of squeeze usually comes before a sharp move in either direction.
The ADX trend indicator backs this up, sitting at 11, well under the 25 mark that signals a strong trend. The -DI and +DI lines are close together, showing no clear bullish or bearish push yet.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno pointed to the long-term holder aNUPL metric, which has turned negative. That means long-term holders are now sitting on losses on average.
Past cycle bottoms saw this metric fall much lower. That leaves two possibilities: either another sell-off is needed, or steady demand from corporate treasuries is absorbing supply earlier than before.
If Bitcoin falls below $60,000 and the metric drops further, the case for another leg down grows stronger. If it recovers back toward zero, it would suggest long-term holder stress is fading.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Price: ETF Outflows Break Five Day Winning Streak appeared first on Blockonomi.