$BMT +160%: MY MEAN REVERSION MAP — NOT A SHORT YET
$BMT is already around 3x from its pre-pump zone, with a recent high at 0.04359. The move looks exhausted, but exhaustion is not reversal.
My current framework:
STATE 4 — SQUEEZE
Price >0.039
Negative funding
Shorts trapped
OI still elevated
4H structure intact
➡️ NO SHORT
4H RSI is still around 86–88, MACD remains strongly positive and price is riding the upper Bollinger Band. Structurally, the pump is still alive.
STATE 4.5 — DISTRIBUTION WATCH
The zone I’m watching is 0.039–0.0436.
I want to see:
• rejection near 0.041–0.0436
• OI failing to print a new high
• whales remaining net sellers
• taker buy losing dominance
• volume failing to accelerate
Latest whale flow already showed:
Buying: $53.4K
Selling: $105.2K
Net: -$51.8K
Meanwhile, 1H RSI has cooled toward 67–72, MACD is losing acceleration, volume is lower than at the peak, and 0.04359 has already been rejected once.
That is exhaustion. Not confirmation.
STATE 5 — DISTRIBUTION
I want at least 3 of these 4:
• failed new high / lower high
• OI divergence
• persistent whale selling
• weakening taker buy
Only then does the short become technically interesting.
STATE 6 — DRAIN
My first major bearish confirmation is a loss of 0.035 with expanding sell volume, falling OI and failure to recover 0.035–0.036.
Then my structural targets become:
0.032 → 0.029–0.030 → 0.024–0.025
The last zone matters because it sits close to the average entry of profitable whale longs around 0.02425.
If BMT returns to 0.041–0.0436 with OI expanding, I do nothing. Another squeeze is possible.
And $TUT? I’m staying out. The derivatives structure is showing unusual volatility and an extreme imbalance, roughly $30M long vs ~$2M short. That is not a clean mean-reversion setup for me.
I don’t short because price looks absurd.
I short when the structure proves the pump is losing control.
$BMT is already around 3x from its pre-pump zone, with a recent high at 0.04359. The move looks exhausted, but exhaustion is not reversal.
My current framework:
STATE 4 — SQUEEZE
Price >0.039
Negative funding
Shorts trapped
OI still elevated
4H structure intact
➡️ NO SHORT
4H RSI is still around 86–88, MACD remains strongly positive and price is riding the upper Bollinger Band. Structurally, the pump is still alive.
STATE 4.5 — DISTRIBUTION WATCH
The zone I’m watching is 0.039–0.0436.
I want to see:
• rejection near 0.041–0.0436
• OI failing to print a new high
• whales remaining net sellers
• taker buy losing dominance
• volume failing to accelerate
Latest whale flow already showed:
Buying: $53.4K
Selling: $105.2K
Net: -$51.8K
Meanwhile, 1H RSI has cooled toward 67–72, MACD is losing acceleration, volume is lower than at the peak, and 0.04359 has already been rejected once.
That is exhaustion. Not confirmation.
STATE 5 — DISTRIBUTION
I want at least 3 of these 4:
• failed new high / lower high
• OI divergence
• persistent whale selling
• weakening taker buy
Only then does the short become technically interesting.
STATE 6 — DRAIN
My first major bearish confirmation is a loss of 0.035 with expanding sell volume, falling OI and failure to recover 0.035–0.036.
Then my structural targets become:
0.032 → 0.029–0.030 → 0.024–0.025
The last zone matters because it sits close to the average entry of profitable whale longs around 0.02425.
If BMT returns to 0.041–0.0436 with OI expanding, I do nothing. Another squeeze is possible.
And $TUT? I’m staying out. The derivatives structure is showing unusual volatility and an extreme imbalance, roughly $30M long vs ~$2M short. That is not a clean mean-reversion setup for me.
I don’t short because price looks absurd.
I short when the structure proves the pump is losing control.