Friday Reality Check on CLARITY:
1) Bill is 95% dead. September passage? 5% chance. Lame duck? Another 5%, only if Dems get crushed in midterms. Election season politics killed it.
2) The vote window closed between last Friday and Tuesday. Senate time agreements require unanimous consent—at least 10 Senators (mostly Dems) blocked it. When you're competing for floor time against govt funding + AG nom, and Thune has 5 competitive races to worry about (ME, AK, NE, MT, KS), it's over. Anyone thinking today wasn't a fly-out day got played.
3) Those WSJ op-eds and last-minute GOP Senator doubts? Wake-up call. Crypto hasn't won the policy argument within the GOP yet. Conservative opinion leaders still skeptical. DC policy follows elite media, and we're losing that fight. Industry needs to spend August convincing thought leaders crypto has longevity and utility, or this bill stays dead.
What killed it? Trump refusing tougher ethics terms. Shocking to absolutely no one who's watched him operate.
Bottom line: 10% total survival odds. Crypto needs to fix its messaging problem with conservative elites or we're cooked on future legislative plays.
1) Bill is 95% dead. September passage? 5% chance. Lame duck? Another 5%, only if Dems get crushed in midterms. Election season politics killed it.
2) The vote window closed between last Friday and Tuesday. Senate time agreements require unanimous consent—at least 10 Senators (mostly Dems) blocked it. When you're competing for floor time against govt funding + AG nom, and Thune has 5 competitive races to worry about (ME, AK, NE, MT, KS), it's over. Anyone thinking today wasn't a fly-out day got played.
3) Those WSJ op-eds and last-minute GOP Senator doubts? Wake-up call. Crypto hasn't won the policy argument within the GOP yet. Conservative opinion leaders still skeptical. DC policy follows elite media, and we're losing that fight. Industry needs to spend August convincing thought leaders crypto has longevity and utility, or this bill stays dead.
What killed it? Trump refusing tougher ethics terms. Shocking to absolutely no one who's watched him operate.
Bottom line: 10% total survival odds. Crypto needs to fix its messaging problem with conservative elites or we're cooked on future legislative plays.