Wednesday Q&A: What actually matters right now?

In private markets, what matters isn't the macro noise or the next Fed meeting. It's whether the business you're looking at can generate cash through a downturn.

Here's what I'm watching:

• Quality of earnings in small deals — EBITDA adjustments are getting creative again

• Owner motivation — why are they really selling? Retirement or something broken?

• Working capital surprises — the hidden killer in LOIs that look clean

Most investors obsess over valuation multiples. I obsess over whether the business can survive its owner leaving and still print cash in year two.

The best deals right now? Boring companies with sticky customers that nobody's fighting over. Industrial services, niche manufacturing, unglamorous B2B.

What matters is buying well, not buying popular.