Fear as intense as that is not a feeling on the print, but rather a market-structure issue. A high level of fear leads to increased liquidity thinning, increased spreads and costly execution. That is when time is mispriced: small sellers make super moves, and forced sellers sell inventory to tolerant buyers at a discount.

Stop asking, "Is fear high?" Begin to enquire, Is the market still getting the same price when it hears bad news, or is sell pressure beginning to wear out? The bottoms are not feelings, they transform into regimes of flow.

My position: Extreme fear can only be acted upon when the flow response is better than the narrative.

As per your notes: Crypto Fear and Greed Index of Alternative is 10/ 100. According to Matrixport, its $BTC fear/greed gauge is at its lowest ever and beginning to rise, a historically accurate projection in that it indicates exhaustion and not a one-day spike. Your regime context signal was also raised: five consecutive reds in February will signal that, in general, it is a forced de-risking environment, not a healthy two-way market.

Inferred (needs verification/backtest): An oversold Bollinger condition is of the type -2 standard deviations of the 20-day average. The frequency of only 3 times in 5 years is data and method dependent and would be referred to as a hypothesis until proven.

Tradeoff: You can be too afraid to spend your risk budget. In case of further worsening of liquidity or even macro shocks strike, oversold may become illiquid before becoming cheap.

What I observe: the money flows/basis become normalized and not lower; the liquidation tends to diminish with the open interest balance; the price is not making new lows on bad news; reclaim/hold the 20D mean/net spot flow is becoming not continuously negative but a neutral/positive.