🚨 FED WATCH: Too Late for Rate Cuts? 💸
Truflation shows US inflation near 0.68%, yet the Fed still calls the economy “strong.” Meanwhile:
Layoffs rising 📉
Credit defaults climbing 💳
Bankruptcies ticking up 🏦
Disconnect alert: Official statements vs. real data are diverging sharply.
Key risks:
1️⃣ Labor Market Weakening – Jobs aren’t collapsing overnight, but cracks are forming faster than Fed narratives suggest.
2️⃣ Inflation Cooling – 0.68% signals disinflation, maybe even deflation ahead. Deflation = consumers delay spending → revenue drops → layoffs accelerate. ⚠️
3️⃣ Credit Stress Rising – Auto loans, corporate debt, and credit cards show early warning signs of balance sheet pressure.
Bottom line: If inflation is already falling, jobs are softening, and credit is under strain… the Fed may be behind the curve. Market reactions to policy shifts could be sharper than expected.
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