weeklyoutlook

ウォッチリストに入れている7銘柄は、週をプラスで終えたものが1つもありませんでした。$BTC は7日間で-3.3%と下落幅が最も小さく、ETHとBNBも約-2%で比較的底堅く推移しました。一方、最下位は$STRK (-9.9%)と$HYPE (-12.3%)です。この差は、月曜日を迎える市場のリスク選好度をよく表しています。
実際に何が起きたのか
今週、本当に大きな動きがあったのは11月4〜5日だけでした。BTCは週高値の81,196まで上昇し、11月4日は80,504で引けました。その翌日には75,208まで下落し、76,088で引けて、たった1日で上昇分をすべて吐き出しました。他の銘柄も同じ流れでした。ETHは2,450を付けた後、2,230付近まで下落し、XRPは1.34から1.15まで下げました。

Six of the seven majors I track closed the week in the red. The seventh, $HYPE , is up 13.8% over the same 168 hours. If you only watched the big caps this week, you missed the most interesting chart on the board.
Here's the weekly outlook going into November, built only on Binance spot data pulled today (Nov 1, ~17:00 UTC).
The scoreboard (7 days)
HYPE +13.8%
BTC -3.3%
ETH -3.7%
BNB -4.3%
XRP -4.4%
STRK -5.0%
SOL -7.1%
What actually happened
The whole week turned on one day. On Oct 29 the market got hit hard: on daily closes $BTC went from 81,343 to 77,992 (-4.1%), BNB dropped from 759.85 to 698.46 (-8.1%), SOL from 102.44 to 95.64 (-6.6%). Since then nothing has reclaimed those levels. BTC's 7-day high is 81,971 and it's now sitting at 78,150, closer to the 76,326 weekly low than to the top.
HYPE did the opposite. It ripped from the 80s to a weekly high of 97.74 on Oct 29, then gave back part of it and is now holding around 88.20. Even after that pullback, it's the only line on the chart above zero.
The detail I find most useful: on hourly returns over the past week, HYPE's correlation with BTC was just 0.42. ETH sat at 0.90, SOL at 0.89, XRP at 0.86. In plain words, most of the board is moving as one trade on BTC, while HYPE has been trading its own story. That cuts both ways: it didn't follow the dump, but it won't necessarily follow a recovery either.
The 30-day view is harsher
Zoom out and the picture gets worse for the alts. Over 30 daily candles: BTC -7.5%, BNB -7.4%, ETH -14.9%, XRP -15.8%, SOL -20.1%. Two outliers again: STRK is roughly flat (+0.9%) and HYPE -1.0%. ETH/BTC barely moved on the week (0.0292 to 0.0290), so there is no rotation signal into ETH yet.
The weekend is quiet, maybe too quiet
Volume in the last 24h is thin everywhere: BTC traded about 0.42x its average daily volume of the week, ETH 0.36x, SOL 0.32x, XRP 0.30x. Ranges are tight too: BTC's 24h range is 77,450 to 78,285, barely 1%. Low-volume weekends after a sharp drop often resolve with a bigger move once Monday liquidity shows up. Direction is the open question.
What I'm watching this week
1. BTC: 76,326 (weekly low) below, 81,343 to 81,971 (pre-dump close and weekly high) above. A daily close outside that box probably sets the tone for the whole board, given how tightly everything is correlated.
2. SOL: the weakest major on both 7d and 30d. The weekly low of 92.34 is less than 3% away from today's 94.77. If it breaks, the laggard may keep lagging.
3. HYPE: 97.74 is the level that matters on the upside, the high-70s base (weekly low 74.99) on the downside. Hourly volatility here is roughly 2.7x BTC's, so position size should reflect that.
4. STRK: down 4.1% today on just $2.2M of 24h spot volume. Thin books mean sharp wicks both ways.
5. Macro: US midterm elections fall on Tuesday, Nov 3. Event weeks tend to bring headline-driven volatility, so I'd expect the weekend calm not to last.
Bottom line
The market is in a "prove it" week. BTC has to defend the 76k area, and most alts are just leveraged versions of whatever BTC does. HYPE is the exception worth studying, not because it's guaranteed to keep going (it isn't), but because it shows what decorrelated strength looks like when everything else is red.
Which side of the BTC box breaks first, 76k or 82k?
Not financial advice.
#WeeklyOutlook #CryptoMarket #Hyperliquid

週間分析 | 2026年11月8日 | BTC/USDT、日足・4時間足チャート
市場概況
$BTC は厳しい1カ月を経て、現在75,900ドル付近で取引されています。信用状況の引き締まりと、月末数日間にBinanceで発生した過去最大規模の63億ドルのハッキングを受け、10月は約7.3%安の77,500ドル付近で引けました。今週は11月5日に76,000ドルを下回った後、75,200ドル付近から反発し、週間では約2%下落しています。大きなニュースが相次ぐ中でも、価格は75,000ドルの水準を維持しています。
日足チャート（1D）
- 🟢 サポート：75,000ドルの水準。今週も再び試されました。アナリストは、75,800～76,200ドル付近に長期移動平均線が集中している点にも注目しています。