marketcycles

Я пам'ятаю час, коли лиш починався світ
Хто міг, той підіймався та йшов
Ішов собі високо в гори, взявши у похід
Свою надію сильну, як любов
Що все буде добре...
Океан Ельзи - Все буде добре
While everyone was waiting for the "to the moon" moment after the inauguration and all the loud slogans, the market taught us a harsh lesson: politics is noise, liquidity is king.
Many are blaming the current Bitcoin pullback to around $60k on "external factors," but let's call it like it is: the Trump administration made several strategic missteps that overheated expectations and then smashed them against reality.
Populism over regulation
Promises of a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" were rocket fuel for the pre-election and post-inauguration pump — Bitcoin soared from post-election levels to an all-time high near $126k in October 2025 on pure hype. But turning that into law? It's bureaucratic hell. The market quickly realized quick wins weren't coming, and smart money started taking profits.
Protectionism vs. Bitcoin's DNA
Trump's push for tariffs (especially on China and beyond) and a stronger dollar directly clashes with Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement. A muscular dollar always weighs on risk assets like crypto. When trade war fears flared up again, global markets got spooked, and leveraged crypto positions got wrecked.
Cabinet chaos and Fed uncertainty
Erratic appointments and late-night Truth Social posts about the Fed (including the Kevin Warsh pick signaling tighter policy vibes) created the kind of volatility institutions hate. Investors flee to predictability — not to 3 a.m. rants.
The result? Bitcoin erased the entire "Trump pump," dipping briefly below $61k in early February 2026 before clawing back to trade around $70–71k as of mid-February. The crash wiped out billions, triggered mass liquidations, and reminded everyone: hype fades when macro reality bites.
My forecast: When will BTC rebound?
I'm staying cautiously optimistic. We're in a classic "weak hands shakeout" phase right now.
But history shows Bitcoin survives winters — and thrives after them.
A real bounce likely needs the political noise to die down and clearer signals from the Fed on rates. Look toward the end of Q1 or into Q2 for meaningful recovery, especially if liquidity returns and adoption keeps grinding higher quietly.
Bitcoin doesn't need a savior in a red tie. It needs transparent math, time, and fundamentals that don't change overnight. Still, cycles turn. Liquidity will eventually flow back, adoption keeps growing quietly, and Bitcoin has survived far worse. The fundamentals haven't changed: scarce asset, institutional interest, and a world still printing fiat. This dip might just be the shakeout before the next leg up.
And to guys like Trump and his administration, I usually ask one simple question: "Does your back hurt?" They always look surprised — because their back is perfectly fine. Bullshitting ain't like hauling sacks( Пиздіти - не мішки таскати).Ok, my dearests, thanks for reading this to the end. Wishing y'all happiness, solid health, and the $BTC course you truly deserve. Hugging everyone tightly, lifting you up lightly, and kissing you tenderly. Forever yours, 老虎 🐯🫡
#Bitcoin #Write2Earn #WhenWilIBTCRebound #TrumpCrypto #MarketCycles

After a steep crypto bear market, prices often enter a multi-month consolidation or “reset” phase In plain terms, this is when Bitcoin (and most altcoins) trade sideways as the market digests prior losses.
During this time fear subsides and patient investors begin buying the dip, Other factors – like an improving economy or clearer crypto regulations (for example, new Bitcoin ETFs) – also help stabilize confidence. Historically, once the bottom is in, a new bull cycle has typically begun within a few months to about a year. Below we explore why these reset phases occur and how past cycles have played out.

What Drives the Post-Bear Consolidation
Exhausted Selling & Psychology: By the bear market’s end, most weak hands have sold or capitulated. Investor sentiment is extremely low (even “fear and despair” peaks), and any further big drop is capped by exhausted selling. As one analysis notes, during bottoms high trading volume and extreme fear signal that selling pressure is nearly spent. Once this happens, prices tend to trade in a tight range (low volatility) as the market “catches its breath”

Accumulation by Long-Term Buyers: With prices low and fear high, long-term holders start accumulating quietly. Crypto research shows that in an accumulation phase (also called consolidation), prices stabilize and volume is subdued, but savvy investors are buying on dips. For example, Arkham Intelligence explains that after a crash Bitcoin’s accumulation phase often lasts ~12–15 months as whales and dedicated investors load up at discounts. This steady demand at lows gradually soaks up sell pressure and lays the groundwork for the next rally!

Macroeconomic Stabilization: Crypto rarely moves in a vacuum. Often by the end of a crypto bear market, broader economic conditions begin to stabilize For instance, cooling inflation or the expectation of lower interest rates can make risky assets more attractive again. As OneKey’s analysis notes, factors like interest rates, inflation, and global growth strongly influence crypto cycles. When macroeconomic fears (e.g. recession or high inflation) ease, investors regain confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin. In short, a steadier economy gives crypto markets a healthier backdrop during the reset.

Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Entry: Finally, clearer rules and institutional products can spark recovery, For example media and analysts have noted that optimism around regulatory clarity (such as approved spot-Bitcoin ETFs) and renewed institutional involvement often emerges during consolidation. In early 2024, U.S. Bitcoin ETF approvals drove billions of dollars into crypto, helping turn months of sideways trading into a bullish trend. In general, once traders see less regulatory uncertainty, larger investors feel safer buying – which accelerates the shift out of the reset phase.

Chart: Bitcoin’s price (log scale) over time with shaded market-cycle phases (accumulation in blue/green, crash in red) Each crash is followed by a long consolidation period before the next bull run. This chart illustrates how each crash is followed by an extended consolidation. On average, crypto analysts observe roughly 3–4 year cycles from bottom to bottom, with the multi-month accumulation phase often lasting about 12–15 months before a new rally begins. During that phase (blue on the chart), prices trade sideways while sentiment slowly recovers and long-term investors pile in.

Historical Recovery Times by Cycle
Looking at recent Bitcoin cycles gives concrete context for timing:

2015–2017 cycle: After the late-2014 peak ($1,150), Bitcoin slumped into early 2015 (~$250). It then consolidated through 2015 and 2016. By mid-2016 the market had stabilized, and a strong rally built into the 2017 bull run. In other words, it took on the order of 6–12 months after the 2015 bottom for prices to regain upward momentum, eventually culminating in the late-2017 peak.

2018–2020 cycle: The 2017 bull top was followed by a sharp drop. Bitcoin bottomed around $3,200 in Dec 2018. From that trough, prices entered a roughly year-long accumulation. In fact, analysts have shown BTC rose about 310% over the next 6 months. By mid-2019 Bitcoin was already trading many times its prior low. The full bull market picked up steam into 2020 (aided by the Bitcoin halving and stimulus), leading to a new high by early 2021. In summary, the transition from the Dec 2018 bottom to a clear bull market took on the order of 6–12 months.

2022–2024 cycle: Following the 2021 peak (~$69k), Bitcoin fell dramatically. By November 2022 it hit ~$15k (a ~78% decline from the top). After that low, crypto entered a prolonged reset. With declining inflation and U.S. Fed rate hikes peaking, combined with approval of major BTC ETFs, investor sentiment began to recover. By mid-2023 (roughly 6–8 months after the trough), Bitcoin had roughly doubled off the Nov 2022 lows as a new bull phase took hold. By late 2024, Bitcoin was well above its mid-2022 levels (it reached ~$93k in Nov 2024), completing the cycle turn.

These examples show a pattern: major bear-market bottoms are often followed within about half a year to a year by the next bull market’s upward thrust. On average, full cycle peaks occur ~35 months after the previous low, but the shift from reset to rally usually happens much sooner once conditions align.

Key Takeaways
Consolidation is Normal: Crypto markets naturally go through phases. A bear crash is often followed by a long flat period as selling dries up and buyers step in.
Patience Pays: The reset phase can last months or even a year. Savvy investors often use this time to accumulate coins, anticipating the next uptrend.
Watch Fundamentals: Keep an eye on broad indicators – e.g. macroeconomic stability or regulatory news – as these typically signal when the reset is ending and a new bull is starting.
Historical Timeframes: Past cycles suggest ~6–12 months from the bear-market low into the early part of the next bull. For example, after the Dec 2018 bottom, Bitcoin recovered 310% in 6 months. Similarly, after the Nov 2022 bottom, BTC had doubled by mid-2023 on improving conditions.


Summary: In short, crypto markets “reset” after big drops because the worst of the selling is over and investors gradually rebuild confidence. This consolidation often lasts under a year, after which a new bull market tends to begin. Understanding these phases – and having historical context – can help investors recognize when a bear market has truly ended and a recovery is underway.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #MarketCycles #cryptoeducation

イントロ：
新しい報告によると、アメリカの戦略的ビットコイン準備は暗号市場の低迷の中で著しい価値の損失を被っています。これは、大規模な機関保有資産でさえ価格の変動に影響を受けることを示しています。
何が起こったのか：
連邦ビットコイン準備の設立からほぼ1年後、その保有資産は市場の下落により大幅に価値が減少しました。ビットコインが2025年の高値から下落したことで、準備金の評価額は数十億ドル減少しましたが、戦略への政府の継続的なコミットメントは変わっていません。

$BTC ビットコインはこれを以前にも行った。何度も何度も。
• 2014: −85%
• 2018: −84%
• 2022: −77%
すべての主要なサイクルは、本当の機会が現れる前にセンチメントを押しつぶしました。
今、2026年を見てみてください：
$BTC はすでに高値から約50%下落しています。
もう1回20%の下落があれば、私はパニックにならない —
私は現物を買っています。
これがビットコインが常に富を移転してきた方法です：
恐れから → 忍耐へ。
世界がパニックになると、$BTC 歴史はそれが長期的な信念が報われる時だと言っています。
金融的アドバイスではありません。ただのデータ、サイクル、そして規律です。

最近の暗号通貨市場の揺れは、多くの人々を揺さぶり、将来についての恐れや不安を引き起こしています。個人の投資、場合によってはローンが絡んでいるとき、懸念を抱くのは自然なことです。この不確実性は圧倒的で、私たちは「次は何が来るのか？」や「私の投資は消えてしまうのか？」と考えさせられます。
「何か素晴らしいものが芽生えるためには、何かが埋められるか死ななければならない」というあなたの感情は、革新と成長の循環的な性質と深く共鳴しています。これは、現在の痛みを認識しながら、明るい未来の可能性をほのめかす力強い考えです。この視点は、不安定な市場をナビゲートする上で重要です。$BTC

イントロ
質問「ビットコインはいつ反発しますか？」は、市場のストレスの期間中によく出てきます。反発のタイミングは不確実ですが、ビットコインのサイクルがどのように機能するかを理解することで、役立つ文脈を提供できます。
何が起こったか
ビットコインは最近、グローバルリスク資産の広範な動きとともに、ボラティリティの高まりを経験しました。このような期間は、感情、流動性、またはマクロ条件の変化に続いて急激な価格変動が起こる暗号通貨の歴史では一般的です。ビットコインは直線的に動くのではなく、歴史的に拡張、修正、統合、再関心の段階を経てきました。これらの段階は、市場の参加、広範な経済状況、ネットワーク活動によって影響を受けます。

今日、ビットコインは$126,210の最高値から下落し、$60,000のゾーンで奮闘しています。感情は極度の恐怖です。数ヶ月で価値の半分以上を失いました。しかし、パニック売りをする前に、冷静なデータを見てみましょう。
マーク・トウェインが言ったように: "歴史は繰り返さないが、韻を踏む"。ビットコインはこれまでに何回これをしましたか？
🩸 "-50%クラブ": 急激な修正（とその反発）
価値の半分を失うことはBTCにとって新しいことではありません。実際、これは新しい最高値に達するための「通行料」です。