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CPI print provided a much-needed cooling effect after the recent labor market "gravity-defying" blowout. For those of us tracking every tick, the story isn't just the "beat"—it's the divergence.

The Macro Rundown: Headline vs. Core
Inflation is definitely easing, but it's not a straight line down. Here’s the scorecard:
Headline CPI (YoY): 2.4% (Beat: Expected 2.5%, Previous 2.7%).Headline CPI (MoM): 0.2% (Beat: Expected 0.3%).Core CPI (YoY): 2.5% (In-line: Sticky as expected).
The Bottom Line: We’ve hit the lowest headline print in nearly 5 years. However, "SuperCore" remains stubborn, and with grocery and airline prices still climbing, the "inflation is dead" party might be premature.

Market Reaction: The "Everything Rally" (Mostly)
Traders are frantically repricing the curve. Since the data was delayed by the partial shutdown, the volatility was extra spicy:
Bonds: The 10Y Yield plunged to 3-month lows (~4.06%), and the 2Y Yield dropped 4bps instantly. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a May cut.Forex: The DXY (Dollar Index) saw its gains capped. The "higher-for-longer" trade is losing its luster today.Crypto & Gold: Both "danced higher" following the report. Bitcoin is finding support as financial conditions ease.Equities: A "nasty dynamic" continues for tech. Despite the cool CPI, AI-related stocks are dragging the Dow and S&P down due to sentiment around "creative destruction" and valuation resets.

The Analyst's Playbook: What’s Next?
We are in a "Sweet Spot" economy, but it’s a fragile one.
Watch the Revisions: With 2025 job growth recently slashed, the Fed may finally feel the "dual mandate" pressure to ease.Fed Speak: Look for hawkish committee members to point to 6.5% airline fare spikes as a reason to keep their guard up.The Pivot: If Retail Sales (coming up) show weakness alongside this cooler CPI, the March cut might move from "delusional" to "defensible."
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#USNFPBlowout
1月の非農業部門雇用者（NFP）報告は、市場に衝撃を与えました。連邦政府の閉鎖や不況の噂にもかかわらず、米国は巨大な+130Kの雇用を追加し、70Kの予測を打ち砕きました。
データの概要：
失業率：4.3%に低下。
セクターの勝者：ヘルスケア（+82K）とAI駆動の建設（+33K）。
改訂について：2025年の雇用成長は584Kからわずか181Kに削減され、現在の「爆発」は大きな外れ値であることを証明しました。
市場への影響：
この「タカ派の衝撃」により、トレーダーは3月の連邦準備制度の利下げを織り込まなくなりました。DXY（ドル指数）が上昇している一方で、ビットコインなどのリスク資産は「高止まり」するというナラティブが戻る中、短期的な圧力に直面しています。

CMEツールは、1月のFOMCで連邦準備制度が金利を3.50-3.75%に維持する確率が97.2%であることを示しています！25bpの利下げの確率はわずか2.8%です。3月までに、利下げの累積確率は15.5%に上昇します。暗号市場は安定感の中でBTCが$88Kを維持しています。トレーダーの皆さん、#Binanceでの先物取引で賭けをヘッジしましょう！低手数料、高流動性。潜在的なボラティリティをお見逃しなく！ #BinanceCrypto #FedRates $BTC $ETH