Zony Crypto

(confine del suo recente **minimo di range** multi-mese. Questa zona ha storicamente agito come un trampolino di lancio per rimbalzi notevoli, attirando l'attenzione dei trader e suscitando discussioni su se un altro rimbalzo sia imminente.

A metà febbraio 2026, ETH viene scambiato intorno a **$1.970–$1.980**, dopo essere fluttuato in un intervallo compresso approssimativamente tra **$1.800** (o leggermente sotto in recenti ribassi) e la resistenza di **$2.000–$2.400**. Il prezzo è stato sotto pressione, in calo significativamente rispetto all'inizio del mese (circa -38% in alcune segnalazioni) e riflette una debolezza del mercato più ampia, con tentativi di rimbalzo falliti vicino a $2.000–$2.120 nelle ultime settimane.

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency markets, prediction platforms like **Polymarket** have become a real-time barometer of trader sentiment. A recent update circulating on social media highlights that Polymarket odds now reflect a **31% probability** that **Bitcoin (BTC)** will slide to **$55,000** or lower before the end of February 2026. This figure has captured attention amid ongoing price turbulence in early February.

Current Market Context

As of February 7, 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the **$70,000–$71,000** range after a volatile period. Recent sessions saw BTC dip as low as the low $60,000s before staging a partial recovery. The cryptocurrency remains well above the $55,000 threshold mentioned in the market, but the distance isn't as comfortable as it was just weeks ago.

Polymarket's February-specific markets under the "What price will Bitcoin hit in February?" category track whether BTC will reach various price points before March 1, 2026 (based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs/lows). While the exact "dip to $55,000 in February" contract has shown probabilities fluctuating in the **17–22%** range in recent data snapshots (with trading volume exceeding $1.7 million on some related bins), broader sentiment and secondary reporting have pointed to around **31%** for a near-term slide to that level before month-end.

This 31% figure likely aggregates trader positioning across short-dated downside bets or reflects a momentary spike in bearish conviction.

Why Traders Are Betting on Further Downside

Several factors appear to be fueling this bearish tilt on prediction markets:

- **Recent Correction Momentum** — Bitcoin has experienced a meaningful pullback from higher levels earlier in the cycle, erasing portions of previous gains and shaking out weaker hands.
- **Broader 2026 Outlook** — Longer-dated Polymarket contracts for the full year show significantly higher probabilities for lower levels, with some reports indicating **70%+** odds of BTC touching below $65,000 at some point in 2026, and downside bets toward $55,000 and even $50,000 carrying substantial volume.
- **Macro and Sentiment Shifts** — After an euphoric run in late 2025, narratives around institutional adoption, ETF flows, and macroeconomic support have cooled. Prediction traders often lead or amplify shifts in retail and institutional psychology.

Despite the bearish short-term bets, it's worth noting that probabilities remain below 50% — meaning the majority of capital on Polymarket still prices in a scenario where Bitcoin avoids $55,000 this month.

### What This Means for Bitcoin in the Short Term

Prediction markets like Polymarket are not crystal balls, but they do aggregate real money bets from informed participants. A **31%** implied probability suggests meaningful downside risk is on the table, yet it also indicates that most traders still see the $55,000 level as an **outlier** rather than the base case for February.

Key levels to watch in the coming days and weeks:

- **Support zones** around $65,000–$68,000 — a break here could accelerate bearish momentum.
- **Resistance** near $72,000–$75,000 — a convincing reclaim would likely crush short-term downside bets.
- **Volatility** — February has already proven choppy, and remaining weeks could see sharp swings in either direction.

### Final Thoughts

The 31% Polymarket odds serve as a warning shot: while Bitcoin has rebounded somewhat in early February, the path of least resistance isn't clearly upward. Traders are increasingly willing to put capital behind the idea of one more meaningful leg lower before the month closes.

Whether this turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy or simply noise in a broader consolidation phase remains to be seen. As always in crypto, real-time price action — not just prediction odds — will have the final say.

Stay tuned to on-chain data, ETF flows, and broader macro developments for the next clues in Bitcoin's February story.

Bitcoin ha nuovamente dimostrato la sua resilienza nel volatile mercato delle criptovalute riconquistando il livello di $92.000 a metà-BITCOIN RECLAIMS $92,000. 2026. Questo traguardo arriva in un periodo di consolidamento dopo un significativo ritracciamento dal suo massimo storico sopra i $126.000 nell'ottobre 2025. L'azione recente dei prezzi riflette un mix di ottimismo cauto, pressioni macroeconomiche e segnali di recupero tecnico che i trader stanno monitorando da vicino.

Azione Prezzo Recente e il Recupero
All'inizio di gennaio 2026, Bitcoin oscillava attorno alla zona dei $90.000 dopo aver affrontato pressioni al ribasso dovute a fattori come i deflussi di ETF, tensioni geopolitiche e incertezze più ampie del mercato. Tuttavia, un'impennata nel tardo pomeriggio ha spinto BTC sopra i $92.000 il 12 gennaio, con massimi intraday che raggiungevano quasi $92.400 in alcune sessioni. Questo movimento ha rappresentato un notevole rimbalzo, portando il sentiment a breve termine a diventare più neutro rispetto al rialzo.